Glassnode’s cumulative trend score only reached 0.04. Basically zero, showing a low Bitcoin price prediction.
This means that holders of almost every wallet size have switched to active sales. This is one of the most incredible readings that this metric can print.
And yet, the price of Bitcoin is still close to $70,000.
So which one is lying? Price or information about the chain. This is a question that every entrepreneur must answer right now.
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What is a cumulative propensity score and why is 0.04 so troubling?
The collection trend result is similar to tracking a store’s inventory. Emptying the shelves means people are buying. Overstocked shelves mean that everyone is returning items and no one is buying.
The shelves are currently full. The result sits at 0.04.
(Source: Glassnode)
Each wallet level is sold simultaneously. Retailers, middlemen, even whales. This is a distribution phase.
Here’s what that means in layman’s terms. Large holders sell at a fixed price. Fresh buyers see $70,000 and consider it safe. The price is long enough to draw them. Then it breaks.
He buys a bag.
What makes this unusual is that retail is currently driving sales. Whales usually come out first. The fact that larger wallets are added to it makes it worse.
Price stability is not the same as current safety.
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The $70,000 level is a trap door for Bitcoin price
$70,000 is the line. It’s all about keeping it.
Bull’s case is that institutional demand overwhelms selling and $70k becomes the approved floor. Bear mode: sell wins, cascade losses, and the next stop is $60,000 to $65,000.
(Source: BTCUSD / TradingView)
Macro doesn’t help. Above 99.5 dollars. The 10-year yield is higher than 4.2%. Oil 100 dollars. All those assets drag down the risk.
This is a trap to avoid. Price stability is not a green light at the distribution stage. This is the mechanism that activates the trap. Flood coin exchange. The volume dries up. The price is enough to attract new buyers. Then it breaks.
A late period split does not mean the bull run is over. This means you are no longer in the early stages where every dip is a treat.
Watch for cumulative trend scores to return above 0.4. This is a signal that buyers will return. Until then, the chart looks calmer than the data beneath it.
After the increase in the sale of bitcoins across wallets as $70 thousand dollars appeared on 99Bitcoins.
