WASHINGTON — Anyone who has listened to President Donald Trump’s speeches has heard him say it again and again: Gasoline prices are falling during his administration, making life more affordable.
The day before launching war against Iran, he appeared in Corpus Christi, Texas, and said that “right here,” gas prices had fallen below $2.30 a gallon.
“I just left Iowa two weeks ago: $1.99. And then I passed another one: $1.85. It’s happening. It’s happening,” he added.
On Thursday, Trump’s message changed.
He posted on social media that when oil prices rise, as they are doing now, “we make a lot of money” because of America’s energy dominance.
“The United States is by far the largest oil producer in the world, so when oil prices rise, we make a lot of money,” he wrote.
Who he meant by “we,” he did not say. Oil companies are benefiting from rising prices caused by the Iran war, but millions of Americans face an unexpected burden at the gas pump.
One day after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the price of gasoline stood at $2.94 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. As of Thursday, the price had risen to $3.61, an increase of 23%.
One of Trump’s attacks on former President Joe Biden focused on the price of gasoline. A gallon of regular gas cost $5 at one point during Biden’s term. It had fallen to $3.09 when Biden left office.
At a rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, the week before Christmas, Trump pointed to some of his supporters in the crowd as he touted a drop in gas prices.
“It cost these beautiful friends of mine from North Carolina to get here about a third of what it would have cost them under Sleepy Joe Biden,” he said.
In his Thursday post, Trump did not mention gas prices. Instead, he described rising oil prices as something of a windfall for the United States. Taking the argument a step further, he wrote that the war is worth it because it prevents Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, even without the oil riches now flowing to the United States.
He wrote that “it is of far greater interest and importance to me as president to prevent an evil empire, Iran, from getting nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East and indeed the world. I will never allow that to happen! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Trump’s political rise is rooted in a populist connection with forgotten voters, not a plutocratic alliance with oil executives.
Until the war with Iran, he took opportunities to remind ordinary Americans that gas prices were falling and that they were saving money thanks to his policies.
As Trump approached his first full year in office in January, the White House sent out a press release claiming that reduced gas prices were generating real savings. Motorists were on track to spend $11 billion less on gasoline in 2026 compared to the previous year, and the average household saves hundreds of dollars annually, according to the release.
One of Trump’s favorite talking points was highlighting specific parts of the country where gas prices had fallen below $2 a gallon. Fact checks showed Trump was exaggerating the price declines, but he has routinely cited gas prices as a measure of his administration’s success. And, in fact, prices across the country had fallen more than 6% from the start of his new term until he went to war.
In his State of the Union address last month, Trump compared cheaper energy to “another big tax cut.”
“Nobody can believe it when they see the kind of numbers, especially the energy, when they see the energy come down to numbers like that, they can’t believe it,” he said.
Inside the White House, Trump advisers are closely monitoring public reaction to gas prices, said an official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy. he said in an interview. A recent NBC News poll showed that a majority of registered voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the conflict with Iran and believe he should not have taken military action against the country.
Voters “understand that the president is taking important and bold steps to destroy a regime that has been threatening our country and killing our people for many years,” the official said.
Still, Billy Jean Wright, a truck driver who attended Trump’s appearance at a packaging plant Wednesday in Hebron, Kentucky, said he didn’t like how the war is unfolding.
“Gas prices are going up,” he said in an interview. “Our food industry is growing. Everything is growing and we can’t survive here.”
The Trump administration is taking steps to lower prices sooner rather than later. With midterm elections around the corner, the president can’t afford to see voters in a bad mood because commuting has become more expensive, along with groceries.
Trump has said he can end the war at any time, which could presumably stabilize oil prices and reduce gas prices from their current levels. However, Iran is a wild card. The country’s new supreme leader said Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for oil tankers, should be closed, potentially triggering an energy supply crisis.
