The current structure of bitcoin may evolve in such a way that the transition to Bear market 2022. Diagram joint by an X analyst highlights several technical signals that appeared during the 2021-2022 shift and will now reappear in 2026. By contrast, the market may be exposed to a different signal. the bottom stage before the final bottom is formed.
Bitcoin losing signals 50-week SMA structural reversal
In the previous period, Bitcoin reached its peak in 2021 below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). This breakdown marked a turning point in the broader market structure. After losing the level, the price entered a short consolidation phase, where a relief rally briefly developed, but the recovery failed to restore the lost structure. The weakness eventually spilled over into an extended decline that defined the bear market of 2022.
A similar sequence is now seen after the forecast period of 2026. According to @_cryptflow_ on X, Bitcoin has recently broken below the 50-week SMA after reaching a peak earlier in the cycle. This indicator has historically served as the main dividing line high sustained pulse and broader trends, meaning its losses often signal changes in underlying market power.
The table also shows the comparable reaction after breaking. In both periods, the price temporarily stabilized after falling below the moving average and tried to recover. However, these pullbacks failed to recover the lost levels and left the broader bottom structure intact.
This stage is shown on the chart with a consolidation box after a break below the 50-week SMA. The zone represents a relief phase where the price is trying to recover, however struggles to regain strength. In the previous period, this temporary stabilization occurred after another significant decline, suggesting that the current structure may evolve in the same direction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signals of market reversals
Apart from the price structure, the chart also highlights the behavior of the RSI. During the previous market transition, the RSI’s break below the 45 level indicated the beginning of a sustained bearish phase, separating the bullish momentum from the low level. period of prolonged weakness.
The same pattern is re-emerging and the chart shows that the RSI has recently broken below the 45 level, retracing the momentum break that preceded the 2022 long decline. This shift suggests that underlying market power may already be weakening as conditions move away from the buoyant environment that characterized the early phase of the cycle.
The RSI chart also has a decreasing line which has accelerated many times since the peak of the period. Several breakout attempts were made during the last bull run, but each ultimately failed before momentum was reversed. Similar breakout attempts are now being seen in the current cycle.
If the broader structure continues to reflect the previous pattern, the chart shows that Bitcoin can still experience the other lower leg before a clear bottom appears. Although cycles rarely repeat, the comparison shows how momentum shifts and structural breaks are similar historically preceded deeper market reforms.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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