According to historical data shared by Binance Research, the US midterm elections could be the next catalyst for crypto and stock market recovery.
According to a Wednesday report from Binance Research, US midterm election periods have historically been followed by sharp gains in stocks and Bitcoin (BTC), potentially creating a window for recovery in risk assets after the 2026 vote.
The 12 months following the US midterm elections led to an average 19% gain in the S&P500 and a 54% gain in Bitcoin in the three years following the midterms.
Binance Research said the year after the US mid-term elections could prove to be the “strongest window of the period”, arguing that markets have historically shrugged off a major source of political uncertainty after election results.
“When election results are determined and uncertainty is resolved, markets have historically staged strong rallies.”
Bitcoin has had negative returns in previous mid-terms, including a 56% decline in 2014, a 73% decline in 2018, and a 64% decline in 2022, but historical patterns have shown growth in subsequent years.
This report was published about eight months before the November 3 mid-term elections in the United States, which will determine the composition of the 120th Congress.
Binance said the future direction of the market is more likely to be conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, warning that further escalation could push oil prices higher and keep risk assets under pressure.
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The rise in oil is contributing to the pressure on the market
Crude oil prices hit $95 a barrel on Thursday as the conflict entered its 13th day, according to Trading Economics.
The rise in prices followed reports of increased attacks by Iran against energy infrastructure, as two fuel tankers carrying Iranian explosives were set ablaze, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The spokesman of the Iranian military command told the news that the world should prepare for a price of 200 dollars per barrel due to the instability of the United States.
The jump came a day after the International Energy Agency said member countries announced they would end emergency stockpiles by 400 million barrels, the biggest coordinated cut on record.
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Global markets are in a “wait and see” phase amid geopolitical tensions
Analysts at crypto derivatives exchange Bitunix told Cointelegraph that ongoing developments in the Middle East remain a key driver of global risk sentiment, as uncertainties surrounding energy supplies and military escalation keep markets in a “wait-and-see phase where political and geopolitical risks converge.”
“Currently, BTC is repeatedly swinging above the $70,000 level, indicating that market activity is dominated by liquidity flows both on the upside and downside.”
Analysts say the structure of the market suggests that Bitcoin will remain within this range until “macro events provide clearer directional signals.”
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