A new research paper from ARK Invest and Unchained examines one of the persistent questions in Bitcoin: whether advances in quantum computing could eventually disrupt its cryptography.
The authors conclude that while the technology represents a legitimate long-term concern, it does not pose an immediate threat to the network. The report, published on March 11 and authored by Dhruv Bansal, Tom Honzik, and David Puell, asserts that quantum systems remain far from the capabilities needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations.
Bitcoin’s quantum threat is distant, not immediate
The central thesis of the article is simple: quantum computing represents a real but gradual danger.
“Our two central arguments are as follows,” the authors write. “Quantum is a long-term risk, but not an imminent threat. The community must continue to research and protect the network as quantum computing continues to improve.”
They add that even if breakthroughs do occur, exploiting them against Bitcoin will be expensive and slow. “If quantum computing were to affect Bitcoin’s cryptography, the process would be lengthy and at significant cost to the attacker.”
From a practical perspective, the report notes that today’s machines fall far short of the scale needed to attack the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin keys. Current devices operate in what researchers call the “NISQ era,” characterized by limited logic qubits and high error rates.
Breaking Bitcoin cryptography requires very advanced systems. “This would require at least 2,330 logic cubes and tens of millions to billions of quantum gates,” the authors write, far beyond today’s roughly hundred-qubit systems.
Rather than a sudden technological shock, the paper shows a gradual progression towards any significant threat. The authors describe several stages of quantum development. Early stages include experimental systems with limited commercial utility. Later stages will see applications in fields such as chemistry or science long before cryptographic attacks are viable.
Only at advanced stages will quantum computers be able to break elliptic curve cryptography – and even then the process may take longer than Bitcoin’s roughly 10-minute block interval.
The researchers emphasize that this gradual development creates many warning signals. “In our view, quantum development will be a gradual technological advance – not a sudden ‘Q-day’ event – giving the markets and the Bitcoin network time to adjust.”
The bottom line is that the broader internet security ecosystem will likely experience a breach before Bitcoin becomes vulnerable. “Significant developments disrupting Internet security first and foremost,” the paper says, “prompting coordinated responses beyond Bitcoin.”
The report also estimates how vulnerable bitcoin could theoretically be if quantum-scale attacks became possible. According to the analysis, about 1.7 million BTC stored in old types of P2PK addresses are considered exposed but are likely lost. Another 5.2 million BTC is sitting in address formats that can be transferred as needed.
Together, the authors estimate that about 35% of the total outstanding supply could theoretically be affected by the quantum effect in its current form. However, since many of these coins are inactive or capable of being transferred to more secure address types, researchers view the issue as manageable rather than catastrophic.
Management and improvement remain open questions
While the technical threat may be remote, the report highlights the management challenges if the ecosystem must eventually embrace post-quantum cryptography. Bitcoin’s initial cryptographic upgrade requires consensus change, meaning coordination among developers, miners, node operators, and the wider community.
The authors also raise unresolved questions surrounding coins whose public keys are already exposed on-chain. “There is no consensus on how to protect coins that remain vulnerable to quantum,” the report notes, adding to the ongoing debate over whether these coins should be transferred, restricted, or recovered by quantum attackers.
The researchers ultimately see the issue as a long-term engineering challenge rather than an existential threat in the immediate future. “The quantum system will evolve over a long period of time with many intermediate warning signals and decision points,” the authors conclude. “A sudden point of failure is unlikely.”
At press time, Bitcoin was at $69,496.
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