Fuel nozzles hang from a gasoline pump at a fuel station in Guwahati, India, March 11, 2026. Oil prices reverse course from recent highs, falling to around $90 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on the conflict with Iran. Markets remain unstable as traders closely monitor the evolving geopolitical situation. (Photo by David Talukdar/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurfoto | Nurfoto | fake images
India’s consumer inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month to 3.21% in February, up from 2.75% in the previous month.
The headline inflation figure was in line with economists’ expectations for a 3.1% rise in the consumer price index, according to a Reuters poll.
Food inflation rose 3.47% year-on-year in February, also above the 2.13% rise in January, India’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation said in a statement on Thursday.
This is the second reading of the consumer price index based on a revised data series, with the base year changed to 2024 from 2012 to reflect changes in consumption patterns.
The base year was changed because “there have been significant structural changes in consumption behavior, income levels, urbanization, service sector expansion and digitalization,” the government said in a statement in February.
India’s central bank expects inflation for the current financial year to be 2.1%, it said at its latest monetary policy meeting on February 5, adding that food supply prospects “remain bright” in the near term.
However, experts said that while inflation will remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2% to 6%, it is unlikely to trigger political measures due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Looming energy crisis
The US-Israel war in Iran has disrupted shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global energy trade, threatening India’s supply of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a primary cooking fuel.
Currently, about 30% of India’s crude oil supply and 90% of LPG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, the government said in a note on Wednesday.
While households are not yet facing shortages of cooking fuel, prices have increased. Many hotels and restaurants in the country that use commercial LPG cylinders are facing closure as supply has been diverted to homes.
Subscribe now
India’s “Goldilocks narrative of strong growth and low inflation” has continued under the new GDP and CPI series, but is “challenged by higher crude oil prices and fuel shortages,” global brokerage Nomura said in a report on Wednesday.
He added that “elevated oil prices” caused by disruptions in the Middle East will likely curb the Reserve Bank of India’s dovish stance. “We expect a maintenance (of the rate) from now on,” the report says.
Global oil prices have risen sharply since the start of the US-Israel war in Iran, and today Brent crude touched $100 a barrel.
