Bitcoin’s critical metric just hit its lowest level since the collapse of FTX

A key technical metric that measures Bitcoin’s value is at its lowest level since the 2022 bear market.

Sentiment reported Thursday that Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which shows how overvalued or undervalued an asset is relative to its usual “zero play,” is at the same level as at the end of 2022, right after the FTX collapse.

When the 365-day MVRV was oversold and strongly negative after the FTX crash, Bitcoin’s price rose 67% in the next three months, he added.

“It’s common when average income is well below the average cost of what is historically expected,” he said.

However, macroeconomic news and “polarized opinions on the strategy’s aggressive accumulation” changed the landscape of the cryptocurrency, noted analysts, who concluded that a big move could be ahead.

“When this powerful indicator reveals a difference we haven’t seen in 3 years, pay attention.”

A 67% gain from current prices would take BTC back to $116,000, but this is unlikely in the current bear market. In fact, analysts believe that there will be a month of consolidation before a potential move in the price.

Early signs of stabilization

Glassnode also rose slightly in its weekly report, stating that “Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization as ETF inflows return and demand recovers instead.”

For more than a month, BTC rallied between $63,000 and $72,500, repeatedly failing to hold above $70,000, he noted, adding that the price is between two key levels: The price action at $54,400 as support and the “True Market Meaning” that serves as resistance at $40,078.

There are also some stabilizing signals, including positive inflows for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, spot market buyers starting selling pressure, fixed-term futures funding turning negative, and the options market suggesting a drop in volatility, leading to a reduction in immediate fears.

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“The market appears to be transitioning from forced carry to early stability, with the possibility of recovery if spot demand continues to grow.”

Steady in the face of war

Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization as ETF inflows return and spot demand recovers. Negative funding indicates crowded shorts, while options are becoming lighter.

Read the full chain week👇https://t.co/jPJp9MbNJp pic.twitter.com/jUHoVhTjXo

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 11, 2026

Crypto market outlook

Total market capitalization for the day is at the same level as yesterday at $2.45 trillion.

Bitcoin rose another $71,000 in late US trading, but returned to $69,400 in the Asian morning session, mirroring yesterday’s trading pattern.

Ether prices are largely unchanged at just over $2,000, while altcoins remain inactive.

10x Research reported on Thursday that “crypto sentiment remains weak and trading volume is near record lows.”