In its latest note, Jefferies flagged that the tariff hike may be rolled back as the much-awaited Jio IPO may be delayed beyond the first half of 2026 due to regulatory hikes.
“The chances of a rate hike till June 2026 are slim,” the report said, citing two key reasons, the likely rise in inflation driven by higher energy prices and the fact that “even six months after Sebi reduced the minimum share sale requirement for large IPOs to 2.5%, the final gazette notification is yet to be issued.”
Jefferies warned that this could “potentially delay Jio’s IPO beyond 1HCY26, which would eventually push back tariff hikes,” prompting it to accept only a 15% sector tariff hike in December 2026 and undercut Bharti’s India Mobile ARPU and EBITDA forecasts.
The second key drag on the target price is Bharti’s surprising share of the NBFC business, which the brokerage said raised “concerns about capital allocation” and weighed on the stock despite rising earnings.
Bharti shares are down 14% so far in 2026, underperforming the Nifty50 by about 5 percent, with Jefferies noting that “much of the price decline” came after the NBFC’s announcement, even though FY27-28 consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates saw an upside of more than 1% over the same period.
The company plans to infuse Rs 14,000 crore into new lending capital (Rs 20,000 crore from Bharti Group) which will put it at the top of NBFCs in terms of net worth in a market “dominated by a handful of companies that have consolidated market share in recent years.” Jefferies estimates that the NBFC could pick up around 36% of Bharti at the current market price. scenario (at 4x price-to-book) and about 1% off in the worst-case scenario (0x price-to-book), but emphasized that “more such moves in the future cannot be ruled out.”
To reflect the twin risks of the Jio IPO/tariff hike and Bharti’s investment allocation in financial services, Jefferies lowered its target EV/EBITDA multiple for Bharti’s India operations from 13x to 12x.
This rating, coupled with lower revenue and earnings assumptions, has resulted in an 8-11% cut in FY27-28 earnings estimates, even as the brokerage continues to see a 13-14% CAGR in India revenue and EBITDA and sees Bharti’s India EBITDA (previously pegged between Rs 1 billion and 24,200 crore). FY28, depending on tariff and margin trends.
“Despite the earnings revision, Bharti Airtel projects a strong 13-14% CAGR in India revenues and EBITDA,” Jefferies said, adding that based on a valuation range of 9.5-13.5x EV/EBITDA, a fair value band of Rs 1,570-2,890 implies a downside of 1,570-2,890% on all-round basis. The risk reward is very reasonable.
The brokerage reiterated a buy rating on the stock.
