According to the latest Art Basel and UBS Art Market Report released by art economist Clare McAndrew, the global art market will return to moderate growth in 2025, with sales estimated to reach $59.6 billion. Although the market remains below its 2022 peak, the total increased 4% from the previous year, breaking two years of sales declines.
The recovery, however, comes with an asterisk. While auctions rebounded strongly, galleries saw little change, with most of the market’s growth coming from a handful of very expensive works.
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Public auction sales rose 9%, helping to boost the overall market. Global dealer sales grew only 2% to $34.8 billion. Meanwhile, private sales at auction houses fell 5%, reversing a trend last year when collectors increasingly opted for clandestine sales.
The number of transactions has barely changed. Sales rose just 2% to about 41.5 million units, suggesting that the market’s growth was less due to a surge in activity and more to rising prices for a few larger pieces.
As in previous years, art trading remains concentrated in a few markets. The United States, United Kingdom and China together account for 76% of global sales by value. The United States maintained its position as the world’s largest art market, with sales reaching US$26 billion, accounting for 44% of the global total. The UK follows with 18% and China with 14%.
The market’s growth has been largely driven by a resurgence in high-value transactions, particularly in New York. The total value of works selling for more than $10 million at U.S. auctions jumped nearly 40%, a reminder that trophy works still play an outsized role in shaping the fortunes of the market.
Auctioneer Oliver Barker before banging his gavel to sell Gustav Klimt’s portrait of Elisabeth Lederer.
Photography by Julian Cassady/Courtesy of Sotheby’s
The same pattern can be seen across the auction landscape. The value of works selling for more than $1 million increased by 21%, while the value of works selling for more than $10 million increased by 30%. On the other hand, sales of works priced under $50,000 fell slightly, widening the gap between the top of the market and everything below it.
The strongest auction areas this year are those dominated by historic artists. Impressionist and Post-Impressionist art soared 47%, while the Old Masters market rose 30% after two years of decline. In contrast, the once-hot postwar and contemporary category fell 2% to $4.5 billion, a continuation of the cooling that followed the pandemic-era boom.
The shift hints at a more cautious market. In times of economic uncertainty, collectors tend to favor artists with a long history rather than new artists still riding the wave of speculation.
This caution is also present in the gallery. Dealer sales generally returned to growth, but performance varied by size. Sales growth was strongest among smaller galleries with annual sales of less than $500,000. However, the middle market remains largely stagnant. Dealers with a turnover of more than $10 million achieved modest growth of 3% after two years of decline.
At the same time, costs continue to rise. Dealer sales have increased, but transportation, logistics and art fair expenses have increased, resulting in average operating costs rising by about 5% in 2025, growing faster than sales growth.
“In past reports, much of the discussion has focused on sales and revenue,” said Noah Horowitz, CEO of Art Basel. “This year’s data shows that sales are recovering and confidence is returning. Yes, the performance is mixed. Some parts of the market are stronger than others and cost pressures remain a real challenge. But the trend is upward.”
Horowitz said rising operating costs are affecting the way galleries enter the market. Even as sales begin to recover, increased shipping, logistics, staffing and art fair expenses are forcing many dealers to operate more strategically and manage costs more carefully.
Despite the closure of several high-profile galleries, reports indicate that the overall ecosystem remains relatively stable. New gallery openings still outnumber closings, suggesting the market is reshaping rather than shrinking. “I’m not going to underestimate the impact of Tim Blum, Venus Over Manhattan, or Clearing closing,” Horowitz said, “but when you start to see new galleries opening at a faster rate, younger galleries entering the scene, innovative businesses being formed, that’s a sign that the market is renewing itself. That’s a good sign.”
Art Basel Qatar
Courtesy of Art Basel
In the meantime, art fairs remain the heart of the industry. By 2025, art fairs will account for 35% of dealer sales, up from 31% the year before, cementing their position as the industry’s primary market connecting galleries with international collectors.
The pandemic-era rush for digital sales also continues to fade. Purely online transactions fell to $9.2 billion, the lowest level since 2019, accounting for 15% of the market, well below the 25% peak reached in 2020.
Much of this decline reflects a return of high-value transactions to the physical spaces of auction houses, galleries and art fairs, where collectors still prefer to see major works in person before committing millions of dollars.
Politics and economics will also hover over the 2025 market. Dealers and auction houses cited uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy, particularly in the United States, as growing concerns.
U.S. imports of art and antiques rose 13% to $9.9 billion, in part as collectors and dealers moved works ahead of potential trade disruptions.
Currently, the art market is growing again, but the growth is uneven. Some blockbuster sales have helped push that number upward into 2025, while most markets continue to successfully hold water steady.
