Five months of losses may be setting Bitcoin up for a rebound — and some traders think the bears will face their first real test during this period.
Oversold conditions attract market attention
Bitcoin broke above $70,000 again on Tuesday, sparking media talk of what market intelligence firm Santiment describes as “FOMO territory.”
Positive discussions on social media rebounded sharply on Monday before prices rallied.
The shift was fast. According to Sentiment, crypto markets move quickly during periods of uncertainty because they operate around the clock and are not tied to any single government or financial system.
Image: Tanganica.com
The price rise was partly due to comments by US President Donald Trump, who said the conflict with Iran was “too full and too much”, indicating that tensions in the Middle East could be easing.
In response, oil prices fell. This gave crypto traders something to work with.
Almost immediately after Trump’s announcement, a post on Truth Social warned that the US would increase its military pressure on Iran if the oil supply was cut off.
🤑 Bitcoin sentiment after its market value surpassed $70,000 on Tuesday. Across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other crypto-related forums, the crowd is buoyed by Trump’s comments that the war may end soon and that oil prices are headed in a different direction. pic.twitter.com/S21cXOUM0F
— Sentiment (@santimentfeed) March 10, 2026
The mixed signals didn’t stop Bitcoin’s rally, but they added a layer of uncertainty that traders can’t ignore.
Big Fuel Strategy Purchase
Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Australian cryptocurrency investment manager Merkle Tree Capital, said the geopolitical backdrop isn’t the only thing driving upbeat sentiment.
He pointed to continued institutional buying, including from Strategy, which bought about 18,000 bitcoins last week and made a second purchase earlier this week.
Keeping Bitcoin off the February lows was also important. The data showed the asset fell steadily from a peak of $126,000 in October – five consecutive months of declines that technically beat it.
According to McMillin, that kind of broad slide could set up a rally in support even without a major catalyst.
“Shorts are vulnerable,” he said. “Liquidity on the short side could squeeze to $80,000 before a real higher/lower decision is made.”
He also pointed to cooling inflation, a new Federal Reserve rate hike expected within months, and the implementation of the Lighting Act as tailwinds that could support prices.
Still, extreme fear is driving the broader index
Not all moments are read in the same way. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index – which is derived from data on volatility, market momentum, social media signals and Google Trends – hit 15 on Wednesday in “extreme fear” territory. This reading cuts against the optimism seen in Sentiment’s social tracking.
Google Trends data for “Bitcoin” was around 71 as of Wednesday, down from a peak of 100 on March 5, with retail interest falling from its peak even as prices recovered.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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