Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $70,000 as the market continues to trade sideways after weeks of volatility. Price action has remained relatively stable in recent sessions, with buyers and sellers struggling to establish a clear directional trend, while liquidity remains limited in the broader crypto market.
Although price movements on the surface suggest a period of equilibrium, data on the chain suggests that underlying market pressure may be gradually increasing. A recent report from CryptoQuant notes a resurgence of Bitcoin’s supply gauge in losses, which keeps BTC’s current trading percentage at a loss relative to its purchase price.
According to the data, the supply of Bitcoin in losses is again approaching the range of 40-45%. Historically, this zone has tended to appear during the transitional stages of market cycles, especially during bear market developments or extended correction periods.
Previous periods provide a useful reference point. In 2015, 2019, and again in 2022, expansions in the share of coins held at a loss coincided with periods of increased market pressure. As more investors moved into negative territory, selling pressure often intensified as participants realized losses or reduced exposure to uncertain market conditions.
An increase in supply at points of loss to an increase in market pressure
The report also highlights a broader structural signal emerging beneath Bitcoin’s current consolidation. As the Supply metric continues to grow in losses, a growing portion of the market is holding coins at a price below their purchase price. Historically, this dynamic reflects weakening market structure as more investors are in negative territory.
When most of the circulating supply goes to waste, stress often increases. Some investors may give up and sell, while others choose to hold after a downturn. This tension between forced sales and long-term condemnation tends to define the middle stages of market reforms.
However, historical data shows that the current level does not yet represent the most intense phase of market pressure. In previous periods, major market downs usually occurred only when the Supply in Loss exceeded approximately 50% of Bitcoin in circulation. Those moments coincided with widespread surrender, when most recent buyers were under water.
Currently, the metric, which is approaching the 40-45% range, indicates that pressure is increasing, but has not yet reached the levels historically associated with cyclical downturns.
If previous patterns repeat themselves, the current environment may represent the early stages of a bullish phase rather than the final end of a market cycle.
Bitcoin is consolidating below the major moving averages after a sharp correction
Bitcoin continues to trade near the $69,000-$70,000 zone after a sharp correction earlier this year. The 3-day chart shows that BTC is trying to stabilize after a rapid decline that pushed the asset from the $90,000 range to the $60,000-$65,000 zone in February, where buyers briefly stepped in to absorb the selling pressure.
Despite the recent rebound, the broader structure remains technically volatile. Bitcoin is currently trading below its short-term and medium-term moving averages, including the 50-period and 100-period trendlines, which are now down and acting as upper resistance. This alignment typically reflects a weakening of momentum after a period of strong upside.
The long-term 200-period moving average near the $90,000 area remains the most important structural level above the market. A loss of this trend line earlier in the correction confirmed a transition from an expansion phase to a consolidation or broader correction environment.
In the short term, price action suggests that Bitcoin is in a range of around $65,000 to $72,000. The lower boundary of this area has acted as support during recent pullbacks, while repeated attempts to push above the $72,000 level have struggled to gain sustained momentum.
Until Bitcoin regains the $75,000-$80,000 zone, the chart shows that the market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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