The next big move for Bitcoin (BTC) could be due to changes in the exchange process and the activity of Binance derivatives.
Onchain data from the largest cryptocurrency exchange currently shows a cooling of whale deposits, an increase in BTC outflows, and an increase in futures dominance, which could influence the next direction of the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin shark activity cools off after peaking in February
Binance’s Bitcoin whale exchange ratio, which measures the ten largest earners relative to total exchange deposits, rose above 0.60 in early February, indicating strong whale selling.
Since then, the 14-day moving average has moved closer to 0.45, with levels seen through 2024 and 2025. The drop in multiple entry speeds indicates that dominant sell moves are coming into Binance at the current stage of the range.
Price action is also important during this period. Bitcoin stabilized in the $65,000-$72,000 region after the February decline instead of extending the decline.
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Meanwhile, Crypto analyst CW noted that some whales may still be piling up. The Bitcoin Total Delta (CVD) indicator is showing continued bearish buying in the recent consolidation.
At the same time, whales have signs of aggregation. Crypto analyst CW said Bitcoin Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows buying from large traders as BTC price consolidates.
CVD tracks the net difference between buying and selling an aggressive market. Higher readings while the price is moving sideways may indicate that larger participants are absorbing supply without the price accelerating quickly.
BTC outflows on Binance increase as futures dominate spot trading
The flow of the exchange network on Binance has also changed since mid-February. The network aggregate tracks the difference between coins entering and exiting the exchanges.
The 14-day moving average moved deeper into negative territory at -1,151 BTC on March 11, signaling a steady wave of Bitcoin outflows from the platform. This indicates that more BTC is leaving the exchange, reducing the immediate supply for sale.
Along with these trends, derivative activity expanded. Crypto analyst Maartunn said that the ratio of futures to spot trading volume on Binance has reached about 5.3, the highest level since October 2023, which means that the futures market is more than five times the spot volume.
Higher futures activity may indicate that traders are using leverage and leverage for BTC price volatility.
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s research points to improving demand for space. The bourse noted that the leveraged profit ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders has risen since the end of February.
Related: Bitcoin Faces ‘Extremely Volatile’ Regulation as Bull’s Eye Returns to $80K by Month’s End
According to the exchange, the recovery in the short holder SOPR above 0 across both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) indicates that demand has recently been strong enough to take away selling pressure from newer traders. This helped stabilize the price of BTC in the current range.
These factors underline the reason for Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase, which should lead to even more rapid pricing if BTC strengthens the $70,000 level as support.
However, a break of the $72,000 resistance over the next few days or weeks could confirm a bull trap and lead to the next leg down if history repeats itself.
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