According to market analysts at exchange-traded product (ETP) issuer 21Shares, the latest rise in the consumer price index (CPI) was “in line with estimates” and rising inflation has already been priced into macroeconomic data for the CPI print.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shelter increased 0.2% in February, while the food sector CPI increased 0.4%, energy increased 0.6% and the index of all materials excluding food and energy increased 0.2%.
Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21shares, said the upcoming CPI prints will put more pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body that decides interest rate policy. He said:
“What matters now is the Fed’s response function to the higher CPI print. Do they ‘see’ this as a temporary bump despite having burned through the previous cycle of inflation? Or are they tilting the basin as a precaution?”
Crypto markets remain flat after February’s CPI report, with the Total 3 market index, which tracks all cryptocurrency market capitalizations except Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), down only about 1% from the day’s high of about $722 billion.
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What does this mean for BTC price?
According to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, “In the near term, Bitcoin is likely to remain in the $68,000 to $74,000 range. However, a breakout past the $75,000 resistance area looks imminent.”
If BTC manages to break above the $75,000 level, it could enter a consolidation phase between $75,000 and $80,000 in the medium term, Mena said.
Historical price data shows that BTC typically returns 15% or more after geopolitical market shocks, which puts its price in the $77,000 to $80,000 range, he said.
According to Mena, the market’s recovery to these levels could also “accelerate” if the FOMC resumes interest rate cuts in 2026.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, only 0.6% of traders expect an interest rate cut from the current range of 3.50 – 3.75% at the March 18 FOMC meeting.
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