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Tesla ( TSLA ) reported net income of $3.794B in 2025, down 46.79% year-over-year, while vehicle deliveries fell 16% in Q4 2025 and 9% for the full year despite global EV market growth.
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Tesla’s fully self-driving safety metrics have deteriorated sharply, with city miles dropping from 809 miles in v14.2 to 4,109 miles in v14.1, compared to Waymo’s 30,000-mile benchmark.
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Tesla ( TSLA ) reported net income of $3.794B in 2025, down 46.79% year-over-year, while vehicle deliveries fell 16% in Q4 2025 and 9% for the full year despite global EV market growth.
Tesla’s fully self-driving safety metrics have deteriorated sharply, with city miles with critical displacement falling from 809 miles in v14.2 to 4,109 miles in 14.2, compared to Waymo’s 30,000-mile benchmark, while the FSDSA’s risk review increases.
READ: The analyst named NVIDIA in 2010 Just naming his top 10 AI stocks
Tesla is facing an exodus of key executives in its core auto business, including a finance VP and directors overseeing key programs, as Chinese rivals intensify price wars and regulatory scrutiny intensifies around autonomous vehicle claims.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) stock may be up 2% today, but shares remain at their all-time highs. TSLA is down nearly 18% from its December 2025 high of $498.83, and the reasons behind this slide are piling up quickly.
The stock is down 9% year-to-date, even as bulls cling to the long-term AI and robotics thesis. Wall Street’s anxiety is not unreasonable; As we will discover, concerns are driven by information.
The most immediate catalyst for investors is a wave of leadership departures. For one thing, Tesla’s Finance Vice President Sandel Plani is leaving after 17 years with the company, serving as VP of Finance through 2021.
Palani’s departure follows a string of other senior departures, including the VP of GigaFactory Texas, the program managers for CyberCab and CyberTruck, the director of the robotics backend, and the VP of IT and AI infrastructure. When people close to your most important programs leave, market alerts.
Here is where the bear case gets technical and dangerous. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson flagged that Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) safety metrics are “deteriorating rapidly.” The specific number that should worry investors: The “city miles to critical displacement” metric for the FSD v14.2 fell to 809 miles from a high of 4,109 miles with the 14.1.
For context, Waymo gets 30,000 miles before removing the safety drivers — nearly 37 times better than Tesla’s current FSD performance. NHTSA’s new federal investigation into Tesla’s FSD system is also underway, adding regulatory risk to the already complicated autonomous vehicle saga.
And as we’ve covered before, Tesla’s robotaxi promises are empty: zero miles logged, no permits, now suing regulators. It’s a credibility problem for Tesla that doesn’t go away with a product announcement.
Tesla’s vehicle deliveries are down 16% year-on-year in Q4 2025 and 9% for the full year, even as the global EV market grows significantly. Meanwhile, China-based EV manufacturers BYD (OTC:BYDDY) reported a 165% jump in European registrations in January 2026, while Chinese competition continues to undercut Tesla’s price with rapid new model releases.
Tesla’s full-year 2025 net income reached $3.794 billion, down 46.79% year-over-year, while operating income fell 38.45%; This happened while revenue was originally $94.827 billion. The company is spending heavily on AI and autonomy while its core auto business is faltering. It’s a difficult story to sell at a trailing P/E ratio of around 370x.
To be fair, not everyone is going to leave. Cathy Wood and ARK Investment Management continue to buy deep, providing their conviction on the long-term AI and robotics thesis.
Additionally, Tesla’s China-made EV sales rose 91% year-over-year to 58,600 units in February, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. This is a real bright spot, even if it follows a period of poor comparison.
The energy business is also quietly becoming a real contributor. Tesla’s energy generation and storage segment posted $3.837 billion in Q4 2025 revenue, up 25% year over year, with a record quarterly deployment of 14.2 GWh. And despite the recent rebound, TSLA stock is still 79.71% higher than last year’s $222.15, indicating that the long-term chart is still very different from the short-term pain.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 78% probability that Tesla will deliver fewer than 350,000 vehicles in Q1 2026. If these figures turn out to be true, it will extend the narrative of Tesla’s delivery shortages and likely put more pressure on the stock.
The analyst consensus target for TSLA stock sits at $421.61. However, with a “Hold” rating on Wall Street, analysts note that a re-rating will likely require a supply recovery or a credible FSD round.
Looking ahead, Q1 2026 delivery data, at the end of March, will be the next major inflection point for TSLA. Q1 2026 delivery data will be a key data point for investors monitoring Tesla stock, which needs to change sooner rather than later.
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