MLB ERA Player Pro Prop Futures Betting: 4 Pitchers Worth Betting on the Under

As we continue our exploration of the MLB prop market today, let’s check out some MLB ERA props.

I guess I’m always an optimist because there’s only an ERA under here. But I feel really good about all four because I believe we have three guys who are more interested in durability than talent. And the fourth is when the projection system is not adjusted quickly enough.

Anyway, here are my MLB picks.

Brandon Woodruff ERA under 3.59

The Brewers ace has had major problems staying on the field in recent years. He missed 2024 entirely and has only 131.2 total IP since 2022. It looks like we won’t be able to prepare for the opening day this year either. All of this makes him a contender for a fantasy baseball roster, but one possibility is that he pitches well when he can get on the mound. He has a career 3.10 ERA, with a 3.17 xERA, 3.36 SIERA, and 3.19 FIP, so almost every ERA estimator is fully supported.

He only pitched 64.2 innings in MLB last year, but was fantastic with a 3.20 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 32.3% K%, and 5.4% BB%.

Drew Rasmussen ERA under 3.73

This is similar to Woodruff in that he’s a great player every time he pitches, but has issues staying healthy. Rasmussen’s career ERA of 2.89 is spectacularly high, but not great. He has a 3.71 SIERA, but he also has a 3.36 xERA and 3.28 FIP. He’s slightly more dangerous than Woodruff because he’s not a Big K (career 23.3%). Rather, he stays on the ground with a 9.3 LA and avoids hard contact with a career barrel % of 5.7%.

Plus, he’ll be back at the Trop this year after pitching in the humidity in Tampa last year. Once again we’re not worried about the prop’s innings, but he has since hit a career-high 150 IP in 2025.

Nick Lodolo ERA under 4.09

I can see why this number is high. Lodolo typically plays in a park with extreme hitters and has a career ERA of just 4.06.

But the big left-hander was really good in 2025, with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 ERA. And…notice this…talent was never an issue here. That was his starting ability. He has a stellar career with a 19.5% K%-BB%, 3.54 SIERA, and 3.74 xERA. I think Lodolo is a true budding ace and I like his chances of having a big season.

Trevor Rogers with a sub-4.14 ERA

Rogers’ career has been a roller coaster that makes Space Mountain seem tame. He looked like a budding ace in 2021 with Miami, posting a 2.64 ERA in 133 IP, but what followed was injuries and a 5.47 ERA, followed by more injuries, bad pitching, a trade to Baltimore in 2024, and a demotion to the minor leagues.

Then, out of nowhere, he returned to MLB last season, providing the Orioles with 109.2 IP with a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Of course, that brought some luck in the form of a .226 BABIP and 84% LOB%. But he was still very good, with a K-BB% of 17.5%, an xERA of 3.40, and a SIERA of 3.75. I think he pitches for a mid-3 ERA and this is a great play.