Bitcoin is holding close to the upper $60Ks – $70K zone despite a major macro shock, showing relative stability versus stocks and other risk assets.
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Bitcoin is stable enough
It seems that Bitcoin has passed the first stress test of the Iranian shock and its consequences. As we learned yesterday, Bitcoin has retraced oil’s rally since the Iran war scandal subsided, and the resulting pressure has begun to cool, turning the brutal liquidation into a fast-moving rally.
Since then, BTC has weathered another wave of macro nerves, briefly breaking below $63,000 on the last risk-off before returning to the high-$60,000/$-70,000s range. QCP Capital’s March 11 Market Color note echoes this sentiment, stating that Bitcoin has shown “significant resilience following the recent geopolitical shock.”
A cautionary tale
However, while the recovery is encouraging, QCP’s market color note also suggests that price action “looks more like a normalization than a full return to risk-on positioning”. This caution is reflected in the options markets. Implied volatility has cooled since the recent selloff and is now in the mid-50s, but the 25-delta risk-return remains negative, indicating that traders are still paying a premium for short-term downside pullbacks and upside calls. Spot BTC is holding up, but options desks still don’t believe in an explosive rally; In line with QCP’s observation that lower protection remains in demand, they are still protecting the other lower leg.
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The risk of “stagflation” for Bitcoin
QCP’s reading of BTC’s recent activity includes it in a “stagflationary shock.” Stagflation is the worst possible macro mix for traders: growth is stalling, inflation is still tepid, and the Fed can’t stockpile risk assets without risking more inflation.
After tensions flared in the Middle East and oil soared past $120, global markets are trading a stagflation narrative: softer stocks, higher yields and an inflationary shock caused not by energy growth. As we recently highlighted, macro analyst Alex Kruger believes that an Iranian oil shock in 2026 looks more transient than a Russian shock in 2022, and futures pricing still suggests that markets expect supply chains to heal rather than a protracted energy crisis causing the Fed to panic.
What traders should look for
Caught between the “digital gold” narrative and its behavior as a high-beta macro asset, bitcoin may not yet be a pure safe victory lap. Instead, the options bar and level send a more subtle message: the point is solid, but the big players are still paying for downside protection, treating every strike as a potential breakout if the macro data goes wrong.
For traders, the setup around the incoming CPI and energy tape is binary. A lackluster inflation print and calmer oil could eventually shift it from “stagflation fears” to “soft landing hopes.” Conversely, the warmer-than-expected CPI confirms the details of stagflation, rewards those who have remained at risk, and opens the door for a deeper test of the $60,000 average before any attempt at higher levels.
BTC’s price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
