According to a new note by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin if it captures a significant share of the global market value.
Conclusion
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says that Bitcoin can reach $1 million if it captures about 17% of the global market value.
- The analysis frames Bitcoin as a competitor to gold, which currently dominates the store of value sector.
- Increased adoption through Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment could help Bitcoin’s market share rise.
Bitcoin’s path to $1 million passes through the gold market: Bitwise CIO
In the note named “How Bitcoin Reaches $1 Million” Hougan argues that the long-term valuation of Bitcoin (BTC) depends largely on its ability to compete with traditional value assets such as gold and government bonds.
Hogan estimates the global store of value market to be around $38 trillion, and Bitcoin is now only a small fraction of that.
The largest share is gold, which he describes as Bitcoin’s most direct competitor.
According to the analysis, if the store of value market grows to about $120 trillion over the next decade, and Bitcoin captures about 17% of that market, the cryptocurrency could approach $1 million per coin.
Referring to the rapid institutional adoption of Bitcoin in recent years, Hougan argues that such a scenario is not so far-fetched.
A key factor driving its adoption has been the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, which have opened up the asset class to pension funds, financial advisors and other institutional investors who previously had limited access to crypto markets.
These developments helped establish Bitcoin as a legitimate macro asset alongside traditional stores of value, Hugan said. As institutional diversification increases and global demand for non-public assets increases, Bitcoin may gradually gain market share within the broader store-of-value ecosystem.
“As I see it, the bottom line – that the store of value market will continue to grow and that bitcoin will gain market share – will take you to much higher prices than we have today,” Hugan wrote.
The memo stops short of predicting an exact timeline for the $1 million milestone, but suggests that the goal could be reached within a decade if Bitcoin adoption continues and the broader asset market continues to grow.
