Reaching the UK’s net zero emissions target by 2050 will cost less than a single oil crisis and will bring economic and health benefits, while protecting the country against future costs, the government’s climate advisers have predicted.
Eliminating the UK’s dependence on fossil fuels by adopting renewable energy and green technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, would be the best and most cost-effective option for the future economy, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has concluded.
Doing so would avoid the kind of shock consumers are experiencing from the Iran war, which has sent the cost of oil and gas soaring to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Achieving net zero would cost around £4 billion a year, the CCC found, or about £100 billion by 2050, which was roughly equivalent to the energy-related costs of the fossil fuel crises that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The findings contradict widespread claims made by right-wing think tanks and populist politicians, including the Reform Party, that net zero would represent a devastating £9 trillion cost to the UK economy. In addition to overstating costs, these estimates did not take into account the cost of paying for the fossil fuels needed for energy if we do not reach net zero.
Nigel Topping, chairman of the CCC, said the actual costs were not only manageable but offered protection against future fossil fuel supply crises and against the impacts of the climate crisis. “In light of current global events, it is more important than ever for the UK to move away from its reliance on volatile foreign fossil fuels and embrace clean, domestic and less wasteful energy,” he said.
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, said: “It is highly significant that the CCC has found that the transition to net zero emissions is cheaper for our national economy than the full cost of the last gas price crisis, and can protect families from future fossil fuel price shocks. This is further evidence that those who oppose our clean energy mission would abandon the pursuit of national energy security, reduce bills and protect our children and grandchildren.”
Renewable energy is much more efficient than fossil fuels, as well as being harder for foreign governments to disrupt. People will also benefit from warmer homes, cleaner air, more active travel and healthier diets, with less red meat, representing between £2bn and £8bn in savings a year for the NHS and individuals.
Every pound invested to reach net zero generated between £2 and £4 in benefits, the CCC found. The savings that would be made by avoiding some of the impacts of climate breakdown would be worth up to £130bn by 2050, according to a report published on Wednesday to complement its advice to ministers on the seventh carbon budget.
The government will give its response to the seventh carbon budget, which will run from 2038 to 2042, later this year.
Mike Childs, head of science at Friends of the Earth, said: “The current rise in the cost of gas and oil is a vivid reminder of why we must urgently end our dependence on volatile and expensive fossil fuels, and not remain addicted to them, as some cynically advocate.
“The CCC’s analysis shows that the switch to renewable energy and clean, green electric vehicles is not only economically sensible, but will greatly benefit us in the long term while protecting our environment.”
The UK is legally required to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – the point at which the UK’s carbon output is balanced by the absorption of carbon dioxide from the country’s forests, lands and any carbon storage facilities – but both the Conservative Party and the Reform Party have pledged to abandon the target.
Oil soared above $100 (£75) a barrel on Monday, although it has since fallen slightly, and supply constraints continue as some production sites in the Middle East have been suspended and tankers are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.
This is the second major oil price crisis in four years, and experts warned that more could be expected in the coming years as the geopolitical outlook remains unstable.
Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, said: “It is clear that the UK would realize substantial and lasting savings by accelerating the transition to an economy that is largely electrified and powered by clean domestic energy.”
Despite recent rapid increases in the price of gas, the reform party is said to want to remove incentives for people to opt for cleaner, more efficient heat pumps.
Paul Morozzo, UK climate campaigner at Greenpeace, said: “The solution to reform… is to leave us even more exposed to gas markets that are hitting businesses and households with higher bills.”
