The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) ( SPY ) is down -0.7% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) ( DIA ) is down -1.0%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) ( QQQ ) is down -0.4%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.7%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.4%.
Stocks are trading lower as WTI crude oil prices are up more than +9% today, and are temporarily trading above $100 per barrel. Oil prices have risen sharply due to fears of an outbreak of war in the Middle East and Israel’s bombing of 30 Iranian oil depots on Tuesday. In addition, Saudi Arabia has become the latest Middle Eastern oil producer to cut production as local storage facilities near capacity.
Oil prices retreated from even sharp gains overnight on reports that G-7 finance ministers were discussing a possible joint release of oil reserves. However, the G-7 countries have since decided to release strategic oil reserves in the near term.
Meanwhile, there is no end in sight to the Middle East conflict as Iran’s Council of Experts over the weekend elected hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Iran’s new supreme leader. Iran’s new leader has close ties to Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). President Trump said he was “not happy” with the new leader’s choice.
Stocks also fell on ongoing concerns about the US economy after last Friday’s news that US February payrolls fell by -92,000 and that the February unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.4%. Also, US John retail sales fell -0.2% m/m.
With Q4 earnings season nearly over, more than 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings are a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies reporting to beat expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase to +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Excluding top seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a 4% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Foreign stock markets fell on Monday amid a fresh rise in oil prices. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.0%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell -0.7% on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed sharply lower by -5.2%.
Interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) are down -4.5 points today. The 10-year T-note yield is +0.6 bp higher at 4.132%. T-note prices are trading lower today due to a fresh rise in oil prices, which is inflationary and fearful for Fed policy. The 10-year break-even inflation expectation is -0.3 bp lower today at 2.2350%, retreating from a 6-month high on rising oil prices.
European government bond yields are higher. The 10-year German bond yield was unchanged at 2.858%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is +3.7 bp higher at 4.664%.
Swaps discount a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US stock movers
Big Seven technology stocks are mostly trading lower, with Tesla ( TSLA ) down more than -2%, and Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Meta Platforms ( META ) more than -1%.
Oil stocks are trading higher today with oil prices nearing the $100 per barrel mark, led by gains of more than +2% in Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ), Devon Energy ( DVN ) and Diamondback Energy ( FANG ). Exxon (XOM) is up +0.8%, and Chevron (CVX) is up +0.2%.
Airline stocks fell again today as crude oil prices rose, jet fuel prices rose and airline profits fell. United Airlines Holdings ( UAL ), American Airlines Group ( AAL ), and Alaska Airlines Group ( ALK ) are down more than -4%.
Defense stocks traded higher today amid long-term pressure and speculation that a recent spike in oil prices may prompt President Trump to end the Iran war sooner. AeroVironment (AVAV) is down more than -4%. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) and General Dynamics (GD) are down more than -1%.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is up more than +30% after Novo confirmed it will sell Vigovi and Ozympic on the Hims & Hers platform.
Live Nation Entertainment ( LYV ) after Politico reported an antitrust settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice that will require the company to pay $200 million in damages.
Earnings Reports (3/9/2026)
Casey General Stores Co (CASY), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE), Vail Resorts Inc (MTN).
As of the date of publication, Amir Espland had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
