Iran has rejected two messages from Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, seeking a ceasefire as its leaders feel it is not losing the war and the US president at least feels the political pressure.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also said that a unilateral declaration by Trump that the United States had won the war would not end the conflict. The implication is that even if the United States were to announce its willingness to end its attacks, Iran might be willing to continue the conflict in some form, or maintain its control over ships attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran believes the conflict cannot end until it believes Trump has been shown that the economic, political and military cost is so high that it is not worth repeating. Rather, it insists on a permanent agreement that includes a commitment by the United States not to attack Iran again.
“If you want to establish a ceasefire or stop the war, there must be a guarantee that aggressive actions against Iran will not be repeated. Otherwise, if another attack occurs after a few months, such a ceasefire would be meaningless,” said Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy foreign minister.
The challenge is notable for a regime that at the start of the war 11 days ago sought little more than its own survival.
However, the Foreign Office, in talks with the large number of countries offering to mediate, is exploring whether it is feasible for the war to simply stop as it did in June last year, or whether it should end with some kind of pact that could include a conditional lifting of US economic sanctions.
But the general feeling among figures in the Iranian regime is that it will survive and that at this stage it should not seek any agreement. It will come under intense diplomatic pressure at the U.N. security council on Wednesday, when more than 80 nations will cosponsor a Bahrain-sponsored resolution that condemns Iran for its attacks on Gulf states but expresses no criticism of the United States or Israel. Russia may sponsor a separate motion calling for a ceasefire.
“We are NOT seeking a ceasefire at all,” parliament speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf posted on social media. “Let the enemy know that whatever he does, there will certainly be a proportionate and immediate retaliation (…) We are fighting eye for eye, tooth for tooth, without compromise or exception.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has stressed that it will control the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 20% of the world’s crude oil and around 20% of liquefied natural gas are transported. “At the beginning of the war we announced and announced again that no ship associated with the aggressors against Iran has the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “If you have doubts, come and find out.” The IRGC has also said it will allow the passage of ships from countries that expel their American and Israeli ambassadors.
Even the least militant president, Masoud Pezeshkian, struck a defiant tone, arguing that “the destroyers have come and gone. Iran remains.”
Iranian diplomats argue that after two previous rounds of diplomatic talks were disrupted by US and Israeli airstrikes, there is simply no basis for reaching an agreement.
Meanwhile, Trump at his Monday night press conference rehearsed the various arguments for a declaration of victory, possibly because the United States had sufficiently damaged its ballistic missile launchers and nuclear program that it was not necessary to continue the attack. But he ultimately refused to claim that the American victory was complete.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said: “The regime generally believes that it can stay in this war and in fact that could legitimize it because otherwise it would have been a disaster for the country.” He blamed some of Israel’s attacks on energy infrastructure – which sent clouds of black smoke across Tehran – for alienating Iranian opinion.
“Over the course of 24 hours you could feel the shift in Iranian public opinion from a war against the regime to a war against Iran,” he said.
However, Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies highlighted Iran’s significant self-inflicted problems. “The regime is still standing, but it faces a huge resource problem,” he said. “Where do the resources come from when you have lost your ability to export, when Hormuz is closed due to your own threats, when the region does not want to trade with you and the UAE is considering freezing your assets?”
