Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent recovery from $71,000 suggests that the price bottom is officially at the top and bullish momentum can be seen across the crypto market. TOTAL2, which tracks the market value of all crypto assets except Bitcoin, has found support at its 200-week moving average, but is altcoin season on the way?
The divergence between Bitcoin’s rally and altcoin’s bearish price action draws attention to seasonal indicators and raises the question of whether the broader market could soon follow BTC’s lead.
TOTAL2 is testing long-term support just below $1 trillion
The TOTAL2 market size reached $1.7 trillion in October 2025, but currently stands at $970 billion, a decrease of about 43%. The decline accelerated in January after the market value broke a three-year upward trend of about $1.15 trillion.
The market’s focus is now on higher uptime support. On the weekly chart, TOTAL2’s market value is close to its 200-week moving average of $900 billion, a level that will hold during the September 2024 and April 2025 market corrections.
The daily chart shows consolidation below the previous line and the resistance band between $1.1 trillion and $1.25 trillion, an area that previously had large liquidity clusters.
The altcoin deployment metrics coincide with the TOTAL2 drop. CryptoQuant data highlighted that 36.8% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, excluding Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and stablecoins.
These high readings occur when capital is concentrated in larger assets. The influx of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a growing number of tokens has intensified competition for liquidity in smaller assets over the past year, XWIN Research said.
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Average altcoin performances near low periods
Data from CryptoQuant shows how much altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin. The average altcoin is trading 44.4% below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a level historically seen near the bear phase.
Exchange data shows a similar weakness. Only 4.59% of Binance-listed altcoins are trading above their 200-day SMA, confirming Bitcoin’s bullish phase.
The growth of altcoins is usually led by Ether (ETH). The ETH/BTC pair has not established an uptrend and continues to trade within a descending channel on the weekly chart.
A move above 0.036 could indicate the first break of the local resistance of the channel and signal an improvement in the relative strength of ETH. A stronger upside reversal could come if the pair recovers 0.043, the level that previously acted as resistance before a broader decline in 2025.
Until these levels are restored, Bitcoin-led momentum dominates the recovering crypto market.
Market analysts are also debating whether the next altcoin cycle will resemble past rallies. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently said that future altcoin seasons may not boost the entire market equally, arguing that capital will likely be concentrated in projects with stronger adoption and real-world applications.
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