Earlier this year, the Trump administration, supported by US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Jr., who has long been a vaccine skeptic, announced plans to eliminate three vaccines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) childhood vaccination schedule. As the world’s largest vaccine maker, according to GlobalData, U.S. vaccine makers could be hit significantly by declining vaccine demand.
According to the numbers below, the United States currently dominates as the world’s leading manufacturer of FDA-approved vaccines by approximately 36%, with 45 vaccines produced in 32 facilities across the country. According to Global Data’s pharmaceutical manufacturer database, among countries that produce vaccines for the U.S. market, the average country supplies eight vaccines. By comparison, US production is more than five times the average, indicating how concentrated the US domestic supply is and how dependent US vaccine manufacturers are on consistent and predictable domestic demand for vaccines.
With seven of the 11 vaccines planned to be removed from the childhood schedule, production demand is at risk of falling significantly, a risk reinforced at the state level. By September 2025, the Florida Department of Health has pledged to revoke all vaccine mandates. The third most populous state passed legislation in January to weaken childhood vaccine requirements. Other states are expected to follow, as the RFK Jr.-allied “Make America Heal Again” (MAHA) group takes advantage of growing vaccine skepticism to promote weak missions, and in turn reduce production demand.
Global Data’s region-based projections revealed that US-made vaccine sales in 2025 were the lowest since the pandemic. Between 2022 and 2025, the 75% downward compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is primarily driven by the transition from emergency to seasonal Covid vaccine demand, however, it is also attributed to declining vaccination rates in the US. According to the CDC, last year, only 92.5% of children were reported to have been vaccinated for measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) and polio, compared to nearly 95% pre-Covid.
Florida reported very low MMR vaccine coverage of 88% of young children, with weak mandates still not effective. Ironically, this comes after last year and recent White House executive orders to raise tariffs that were claimed to boost domestic drug production. However, reducing the childhood schedule may reduce the return on the production of the drugs that these tariffs are intended to support. With vaccination rates continuing to decline, these changes in public health policies are the nail in the coffin for hopes of growing the domestic manufacturing industry, ultimately weakening production demand, sales and development incentives.
