China’s exports rose in January-February despite declining trade with the US

Hong Kong — China’s exports jumped nearly 22% in the first two months of the year, driven by a surge in shipments of computer chips, autos and electronics.

Export figures released by China’s customs agency on Tuesday were better than economists had predicted. They surpassed the 6.6% annual growth recorded in December.

Shipments to the US fell 11% in January and February, narrowing from a 30% decline in December. Exports to the European Union increased by around 28% while exports to Latin America rose by 16%.

Exports to the rest of Asia, including Japan and India, also increased sharply.

China’s exports are a bright spot for its economy despite tensions with the US Chinese exports are expected to rise 5.5% to 2025 as its trade surplus widens to nearly $1.2 trillion. Higher shipments to other regions helped offset weaker exports to the US after US President Donald Trump imposed various higher tariffs on imports from many countries.

The boom in the use of artificial intelligence is creating strong demand for all types of computer chips. China’s semiconductor exports by value rose nearly 73% in the first two months of the year, boosted in part by higher prices as the world faces a memory chip shortage. Exports of autos rose by 67% and mechanical and electrical goods by 27%.

Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in late March is being closely watched for a possible extension of the trade deal between the two countries reached in October last year, which could be positive news for Chinese exports to the US.

A recent US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs has already resulted in lower tariffs for countries including China.

“While the recent profit momentum is unlikely to be sustained, exports are likely to remain firm due to the recent drop in US tariffs and strong demand for semiconductors,” Jichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

China’s total imports rose nearly 20% in January and February, compared with December’s 5.7% year-on-year rise. However, its imports from the United States were down about 27% from the previous year.

China’s global trade surplus was $213.6 billion in January-February. Business data is usually combined from January to February each year to help even out seasonal effects from the biggest holiday of the year, the Lunar New Year festival.

A sluggish domestic economy, fueled by a years-long property sector slump, is weighing on the world’s second-largest economy. Last week, Chinese leaders announced an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, the lowest since 1991.

War in the Middle East has increased uncertainty over the trade outlook and China’s own energy security. An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for much of the world’s trade in oil and gas, could restrict China’s access to relatively cheap Iranian oil and hamper its broader commerce with the region.

For China, export competitiveness is paramount, said Han Lin, China country director of consultancy Asia Group. “Fuel inflation is the last thing Beijing policymakers need,” he said.

If the war drags on, rising oil prices that fuel global inflation could weaken consumption abroad, hurting overseas demand for Chinese goods, said Daniel Russell, distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.