US allies and rivals in Asia weigh the consequences of war in the Middle East

Seoul, South Korea — As war spreads across the Middle East, US rivals and allies in Asia are preparing for consequences that include possible economic shock and long-term security threats.

Here’s a look at how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting the Koreas, Japan and China.

At a major political conference last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un insisted that the decades-long pursuit of nuclear weapons was the “right” choice, despite fragile isolation and scarce resources.

US-Israel attacks on Iran reinforce that belief.

The North Korean leadership could watch unconcerned as the strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader. The attack followed a US operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January.

Pyongyang’s foreign ministry condemned the attack on Iran as illegal and an “extremely heinous” violation of sovereignty. Notably, it did not mention the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Hong Min, an analyst at South Korea’s Institute for National Unification, said similar strikes to remove North Korea’s leadership would be more risky and less likely to succeed.

Unlike Iran, North Korea has pursued its nuclear ambitions. Its vast arsenal includes dozens of warheads, delivery systems that threaten US allies in Asia, and intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. It would be difficult to eliminate North Korea’s capabilities in a single wave of preemptive strikes, and would leave open the possibility that remaining systems could be used to attack targets in South Korea, Japan, or the United States.

In his first public appearance since the start of the war, Kim last week reviewed sea trials of his prized new warship and state media tests of so-called nuclear-capable cruise missiles. Some analysts say the display may have been intended to demonstrate Khamenei’s military capabilities after he was killed and the US sank Iranian naval assets – signaling that, unlike Iran, its ships could carry nuclear warheads.

Attacking North Korea is complicated by its geographic proximity to China and Russia — Washington’s most significant rival — with whom Kim is deepening ties as he seeks a more assertive presence in the region.

US military actions on Iran and Venezuela come despite active negotiations. Analysts have differing views on how that could affect North Korea’s desire for diplomacy with the United States, which has been derailed in 2019 after the collapse of the summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump.

At February’s ruling party congress, Kim opened up to dialogue with the United States, reiterating Pyongyang’s earlier calls for Washington to drop demands for the North’s denuclearization as a prelude to reviving talks.

While Kim is likely to retain that position, an attack on Iran may have increased his distrust of Washington and the leader could raise the bar for negotiations, Hong said.

But Park Won Gon, a professor at Ewha Women’s University in Seoul, said Kim may feel more urgency to strike a deal with Trump, viewing his unresolved diplomacy as a risk.

South Korean officials have indicated that Trump’s expected visit to China in late March or April could provide a possible opening with Pyongyang.

South Korea, heavily dependent on trade and imported fuel, has been alarmed by Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure and efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil trade flows.

The war is fueling resentment in Seoul about its alliance with the United States. The Trump administration has shown a willingness to act militarily without broad coordination with allies.

The United States has for decades pledged full military protection, including nuclear, to its allies and bases in South Korea, about 28,000 troops, to deter North Korea. While a major reduction in that commitment is unlikely, Seoul must now consider the risk of running into potential conflicts triggered by unilateral U.S. action, including beyond the Korean Peninsula, Hong said.

“Whether it’s Taiwan, North Korea or the US-China rivalry, there has long been concern in South Korea that the Trump administration could make overly aggressive decisions without fully considering the serious consequences for its allies,” Hong said. “Those concerns are important now.”

South Korea should “clearly define the steps it can take” in different situations, he said.

Japan, another key US ally in Asia, is also wary of Trump’s aggressive military moves and worried about any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

While Tokyo supports US efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear development, the war has raised questions about its legitimacy and cast doubt on Washington’s credibility as an ally, Nihon University professor Mitsuru Fukuda said.

Prime Minister Sane Takaichi and other senior officials have expressed strong support for US-Iran talks but stopped short of endorsing US-Israeli attacks. Tokyo has shown no interest in military involvement, but some experts believe the conflict could fuel Takaichi’s push for a stronger military and expanded arms sales.

A U.S. nuclear deterrent is critical to Japan’s security amid worries about an increasingly assertive China and North Korea. Although global turmoil, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, has revived debate about Japan acquiring nuclear weapons, domestic support has waned due to legal and political sanctions.

China may see the Iran war as an opportunity to carve out a more assertive role in the Middle East by establishing itself as a more reliable power broker than the United States, said Seo Chang-bae, a professor at Pukyung National University in Busan.

Beijing may view U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran — key oil suppliers to China — as partly intended to counter China, experts say.

While steadily expanding trade and technology ties with Gulf states, China has sought to position itself as a regional counterweight, notably by brokering a 2023 deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to normalize ties. It is part of a broader push to strengthen its global influence and challenge dollar-based financial orders.

While Beijing may pursue geopolitical “spillover benefits,” a prolonged conflict could harm China’s business interests, SEO said. He said China could study US combat capabilities and accelerate the integration of artificial intelligence into its military.

___

AP writer Mari Yamaguchi contributed from Tokyo.