Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, off a high of $74,000. A well-known analyst says that care is very important – he averages closer to half a million dollars.
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A rare model
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says that the price of Bitcoin during the current halving period of 2024-2028 could average around $500,000, with a range of $250,000 to $1 million.
The model is built on a simple premise: when the supply of Bitcoin slowly increases – thanks to halving events that reduce mining rewards roughly every four years – and demand stabilizes or rises, the price should follow.
Reports suggest that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a range average rather than a guaranteed ceiling or peak.
The Bitcoin Halve will reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The last time it happened was in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by significant price acceleration. This pattern is the basis of the PlanB argument.
🚨 Bitcoin with $67k… but the S2F model screams $500k on average over this period (2024-2028)! 📈 Is BTC massively undervalued and the ultimate buying opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? 🤔 What is your bull or bust? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj
– PlanB (@100 trillion dollars) March 8, 2026
Not everyone buys it
Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at 200,000 to 250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a big jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint.
According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide, but falls short when used to set specific price targets in complex markets.
He argues that the model captures the broad story of Bitcoin’s growth without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time.
My opinion is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade between $200,000 and $250,000 as the cycle matures into 2026 and into 2027. That is, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028.… https://t.co/dKuNu
— Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026
This skepticism is not unfounded. Stock-to-Flow has come under fire after Bitcoin failed to maintain the price levels predicted by the model for the period 2020-2024.
Some analysts have written off this model entirely. Others argue that it was never intended to function as an accurate forecasting tool – a nuance that is often lost in headline coverage.
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What is the weight of Bitcoin now?
Several external pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent comeback. Geopolitical tensions and changing inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which won US regulatory approval in early 2024, have added to short-term volatility.
The data shows that ETF inflows, which boosted Bitcoin earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months.
Reports indicate that many analysts view the current period as a consolidation phase after a strong rally that pushed Bitcoin above $72,000. Whether this consolidation will lead to a new push or point to a longer plateau remains an open question.
PlanB’s $500,000 average requires Bitcoin to rise more than seven times its current price before the end of the period. This is a big number. But in a market that has gone from $20,000 to $73,000 in about 18 months, some investors say strange things have happened.
Featured image from Free3D.comchart from TradingView
