For this week’s crypto, the story is not a specific catalyst for the sign. Here’s whether the oil shock associated with the US-Iran war turns into a broader inflation problem, just as the market gets February’s CPI on Wednesday, March 11, followed by a second estimate of US fourth-quarter GDP and a delayed January PCE report on Friday, March 13.
This week’s crypto checklist
The market opened the week with energy first, everything else. President Donald Trump said ending the war with Iran would be a “mutual” decision with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signaling no clear cut in the near term, while Brent crude rose to $119.50 a barrel and WTI to $119.48. Reuters reported that Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have begun cutting oil production as conflicts and disruptions to shipping through the Hormuz route escalate. It is worth noting that the oil supply shock is the largest in history.
YOU: The world is currently experiencing the largest oil supply shock in history, losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day.
Main losses of oil supply:
1. The closure of Hormuz (NOW): -20 million barrels/day 2. The Iranian Revolution (1978): -5.5 million barrels/day 3. The Yom Kippur War (1973): -4.5…
— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026
That’s why macro transmission is so important for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. In a speech on Monday, IMF director Kristalina Georgieva made it clear: “We are witnessing that stability has been tested once again in the new conflict in the Middle East. Important oil and gas forces have been damaged and stopped; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by 90 percent. If the new conflict continues, it will have a clear impact and hinder the growth of market potential.”
He added that every 10% increase in oil prices, if sustained throughout this year, could add 40 basis points to global inflation. Meanwhile, US oil prices posted one of their biggest swings in history on Monday when it was reported that the G7 countries were about to release 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.
BREAKING: US oil prices are currently attempting one of their biggest swings in history.
At 10:30 PM ET, US oil prices were up +30% on the day.
The FT then reported that the G7 countries were considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.
Less than… pic.twitter.com/G1uRHvkFxX
— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026
Wednesday’s CPI print is the first tough test. The latest US CPI release for January showed that inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.5% year-on-year. The February report is due at 8:30 am on March 11, and market forecasts are looking for something in the 2.4 – 2.5% annual range, with core inflation also broadly holding near that area. In other words, the baseline is not a sharp acceleration on paper; the problem is that markets now have to judge these numbers against the backdrop of oil, which has worsened sharply since the survey period.
The price of crude oil is close to 110 dollars and has risen to 50 dollars in the last month.
That’s despite Goldman Sachs saying in an investor note over the weekend that a steady $10 increase in oil prices in three months could lift US CPI to around 3% by May. https://t.co/5vLjHAvab9 pic.twitter.com/JfTOQzwAll
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) March 8, 2026
Friday is more crowded. The GDP release is not a new quarter, but a second estimate for the 4th quarter of 2025. Preliminary estimates showed that US growth slowed to a 1.4% annual pace from 4.4% in the third quarter. As the BEA wrote in the first edition, “Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The main contributors to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partially offset by lower government spending and exports.”
Some market calendars are looking for a small upward revision of up to 1.5%. The bigger crypto-sensitive number could still be the delayed January PCE report, which is also due on Friday. December’s headline PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 2.9% on the year, while core PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 3.0% on the year. The current forecast for January points to headline PCE growth of around 2.9% year-on-year and core inflation of around 3.1%.
Bitcoin was trading around $67,409 on Monday after dropping to $65,618 on Sunday. This puts it squarely in macro territory. For now, Bitcoin’s fortunes remain tied to broader risk appetite and the tech complex, while rising Iranian oil has boosted yields and the dollar, dampening hopes for a near-term rate cut.
The quick read is easy: if CPI and PCE hold steady while oil remains high, liquidity expectations are likely to deteriorate further and crypto will remain under pressure. If the inflation data holds up despite the war shock, Bitcoin and the broader market could find room for pure fear of stagflation.
At press time, the total crypto market cap was $2.3 trillion.
