Recent video suggests the United States may have carried out an attack in southern Iran that hit near a school where more than 165 people were killed in an unexplained explosion during the early days of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Footage examined by the Bellingcat research group appears to show a US-made Tomahawk cruise missile hitting a compound near the school in Minab, in Hormozgan province in southern Iran.
The explosion occurred on February 28 at a school located next to an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base.
Experts who spoke with the news agency. Associated Press and satellite images reviewed said the school was likely hit as part of a rapid series of attacks targeting the nearby complex.
A U.S. official familiar with internal discussions told AP that the attack was probably carried out by the United States. The official requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.
Live prices — March 10, 2026
Ten days that revolutionized world energy markets
Brent crude oil and WTI: February 24 to March 10, 2026
Tap any point · Shading = active conflict · WTI peak on March 9 reflects overnight high of $119.48
Key events
February 24
Trump State of the Union
Trump boasts that gas is below $2.30 a gallon. National average ~$2.92. The oil market remains stable and Brent is approaching its 4-month lows.
Brent $70.77 WTI $67.50
February 28: Operation Epic Fury
🔴 Attacks between the United States and Israel against Iran begin
The joint airstrikes affected the Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. Supreme Leader Khamenei assassinated. Oil up 8% overnight.
Brent: ~$78 · WTI: ~$74
March 1 and 2: days 2 and 3
🔴 Strait of Hormuz Closed
Iran shuts down Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global supply, more than double the record of the 1956 Suez crisis. Qatar’s gas facilities and Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery fell. Iraq cuts 1.5 million bpd.
Brent: $81.40
March 3 – Day 4
Goldman Sachs issues warning
Analysts warn of “triple-digit territory” if the outage exceeds four weeks. War risk premium of $13/bbl discounted. Fair value without war: ~$65.
Brent: ~$83
March 5 and 6: days 6 and 7
🔴 WTI: highest weekly gain since 1983
The G7 signals the release of strategic reserves. US gas crosses $3.19: Trump’s pre-war gains completely erased. European gas almost doubles pre-war levels.
WTI: ~$91
March 8 and 9: days 9 and 10
🟢 Trump signals possible end + Volatile session
Trump says the operation is “ahead of schedule.” WTI spikes to $119.48 overnight and then falls back to ~$96-$100 in a frantic Monday session. Brent reached $108 before retreating.
Brent: 101-108 USD WTI High: 119.48 USD
March 10 — Today · Live
⚡ Brent $98.96 · WTI $103.07
Stable but high prices. G7 finance ministers meet to coordinate SPR publications. announced the new supreme leader of Iran. EU oil coordination group meets. The market continues to price in a prolonged disruption.
Brent: $98.96 WTI: $103.07
Analyst scenarios
🔴 Prolonged war
$120+
Hormuz remains closed for more than 8 weeks. Brent tests $120. Risk of global recession.
🟡Base case
$95–110
SPR releases stabilize between 4 and 6 weeks. Gas ~$3.50–4.00/gal through Q2.
🟢 Quick ending
$70–80
Stop the fire quickly, reopen Hormuz. Goldman Fair Value ~$65 Resumes.
Video published by the Iranian news agency.
The video, recorded on the day of the incident, was published by Iran’s semi-official agency. Further news agency on Sunday. It shows a missile hitting a building and sending a large plume of dark smoke into the air.
AP verified the location of the footage and reported that it was filmed near the school, at a time when smoke was already rising from the surrounding area. Satellite images of the complex match features visible in the images, including a flat-roofed structure, nearby power lines and parked vehicles.
New video shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on February 28, showing for the first time that the US attacked the area. Footage also shows smoke rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people are believed to have died. pic.twitter.com/4jBXrNcRJO
-Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 8, 2026
The video was also geolocated by NBC News. He said a Tomahawk missile appeared to be hitting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound, which was located next to Shajareh Tayyebeh Primary School. Witnesses NBC News Spoke said the attack destroyed the school and trapped children and school staff under the rubble. Providing graphic details, the news website quoted witnesses as saying: “People were ripping off children’s arms and legs…people were ripping off severed heads.”
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Among the nations involved in the Middle East conflict, only the United States is known to possess and use this weapon.
Tomahawk missiles are manufactured by Raytheon in Phoenix and the United States only sells them to the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan and the Netherlands.
What Trump said about the school strike in Iran
At a news conference on Monday, Trump suggested that Iran could possess Tomahawk missiles. The weapon is produced by American defense contractor Raytheon and sold to allied nations such as Japan and Australia. However, there is no evidence that Iran obtained the system.
Trump argued that the missile is widely used internationally and said Iran could also have access to it.
Journalist: You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war.
Why are you the only person saying this?
Trump: Because I just don’t know enough about it. pic.twitter.com/5sueGBgFHT
– Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026
“Whether it’s Iran or anyone else… a Tomahawk is very generic,” he said.
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When asked why no other official in his administration had made the same claim, Trump responded that he was not fully aware of the matter.
A Tomahawk missile used by the US (Wikimedia Commons).
“Because I just don’t know enough about this,” he said, adding that he would accept the conclusions of any official report on the incident.
Trump had previously been asked if the United States was responsible for the explosion. Without presenting evidence, he said he believed Iran was responsible for the attack, stating that Iranian weapons systems are often inaccurate.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also addressed the issue, saying the United States was reviewing the incident.
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First clear indication of the type of ammunition used
The identification marks the first clear indication of the type of ammunition used in the attack.
US Central Command has previously acknowledged the use of Tomahawk missiles during the conflict. He also posted an image showing the USS Spruance, operating as part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, launching a Tomahawk missile on February 28. The naval group was located within range of the area where the school was attacked.
Bellingcat said the newly released images appear to challenge US President Donald Trump’s claim over the weekend that Iran was responsible for the deadly explosion.
Several factors have fueled speculation that the attack may have been carried out by US forces.
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One of them is the US military’s decision to begin an internal evaluation of the incident. Under Pentagon guidelines related to mitigating harm to civilians, such reviews typically begin when investigators believe U.S. forces may have been involved.
Trevor Ball, who identifies himself as a Bellingcat researcher, dismissed the claim that an Iranian missile was used in the attack, saying: “These missiles have a bottom-mounted engine, unlike the Tomahawk, whose engine is internal to the main body of the missile, with a small air inlet.”
Many answers say that this video shows an Iranian Soumar or similar missile. This is incorrect. These missiles have a bottom-mounted engine, unlike the Tomahawk whose engine is internal to the main body of the missile, with a small air inlet. https://t.co/emKMWDYv03 pic.twitter.com/BpmS6HbW8c
-Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 9, 2026
‘We fight to win’: Pete Hegseth
At a news conference on March 2, Hegseth defended the U.S. campaign and said the country was carrying out what he described as the most lethal and precise air operation ever undertaken.
He also criticized the restrictions normally placed on military engagements.
“There are no stupid rules of engagement,” Hegseth said. “There are no politically correct wars. We fight to win and we do not waste time or lives.”
