North Korea’s launch last week of a missile from a naval destroyer prompted an unusually prosaic analysis from the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un. The launch was proof, he said, that equipping ships with nuclear weapons was “making satisfactory progress.”
But the test, and Kim’s mildly optimistic assessment, was designed to reverberate far beyond the deck of the 5,000-ton destroyer Choe Hyon, the largest warship in the North Korean fleet.
His direct reference to nuclear weapons was made as the United States and Israel continued their airstrikes against Iran, a regime that Donald Trump had warned, without offering evidence, was just weeks away from having a nuclear weapon.
The widening war in the Middle East – and the existential threat to the Iranian regime – has likely reinforced North Korea’s resolve to build a nuclear arsenal. For Kim and the dynasty that has ruled North Korea since it was founded by his grandfather in 1948, the nuclear program is about nothing less than regime survival.
“Kim must have thought that Iran was attacked that way because it did not have nuclear weapons,” Song Seong-jong, a professor at Daejeon University and former South Korean Defense Ministry official, said after the Middle East conflict broke out.
North Korea has been engaged in a nuclear weapons program for several years that has gained momentum despite U.N. sanctions and Trump’s attempts to use diplomacy to rid the Korean Peninsula of nuclear weapons.
North Korea carried out its first nuclear test in 2006 and its most recent in 2017, although questions remain about the size of Pyongyang’s arsenal and its ability to combine a miniaturized nuclear warhead with a long-range missile theoretically capable of striking the continental United States.
According to a report published in 2025 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the North has assembled about 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more.
What is certain is that Kim’s decision to make nuclear deterrence a priority – and forge a loose alliance with Russia and China – has ensured that he will avoid the fate of the former leaders of Iraq and Libya, and now Venezuela and Iran.
The North Korean Foreign Ministry’s response to the war in Iran has been nuanced. He condemned the US-Israeli airstrikes last weekend as an “unlawful act of aggression” that exposed Washington’s “hegemonic and rogue” instincts, but stopped short of condemning Trump by name.
That leaves the door open to a possible resumption of nuclear talks, depending on Washington dropping its demand that Pyongyang give up its nuclear weapons and accept it as a legitimate nuclear state.
“If the United States withdraws its policy of confrontation with North Korea while respecting the current status of our country… there is no reason why we cannot get along with the United States,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying at a ruling party congress last month.
What is less clear in analysts’ minds is whether the Iran war opens a new opportunity for talks or pushes the North Korean regime to look more inward.
Sydney Seiler, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes the conflict has made a nuclear deal between Washington and Pyongyang less likely.
“President Trump’s willingness to use military force and threats to gain leverage in negotiations should unnerve Kim and make him less likely to hastily seek talks,” said Seiler, a former U.S. special envoy who worked on the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program.
But other analysts said Kim’s desire to ensure the regime’s long-term survival – and his rumored personal relationship with the US president – could draw him back to the negotiating table.
“Unlike Iran, it is impossible to denuclearize North Korea,” said Cho Han-bum of the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, citing the presence of nuclear sites throughout the isolated country. Entering those talks as the head of a nuclear deterrent state could give Kim the freedom to extract concessions from Trump, including security guarantees.
Trump has repeatedly said he would be willing to meet with Kim, raising speculation that the two could hold talks when Trump visits China at the end of the month.
If those talks materialize, Kim knows he will negotiate from a position of strength. As Iranian leaders are discovering, to their cost, that nuclear possession – not ambition – appears to be the path to security.
Agencies contributed reports
