Earth experienced the fifth-warmest February on record last month – with temperatures 1.49C above pre-industrial levels, scientists said.
The month was marked by “extreme rainfall and widespread flooding in Western Europe and the third-lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic,” the Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Tuesday.
Experts say climate change is partly to blame for the unusually wet season across Western Europe.
It also saw a run of intense storms Leonardo, PedroAnd NilsIt was described as “unusual strength” by the French weather service Méteo-France.
Image: Copernicus Climate Change Service
France, Spain and Portugal in Europe, and Morocco, Mozambique and Botswana elsewhere in the world saw significant wet conditions, leading to severe flooding, causing widespread damage and loss of life and livelihood.
Europe’s wet and warm conditions mirrored those in the UK It was one of its five wettest Januarys since 1890 In the southern counties of England, and February was the warmest day since 2019.
Just 0.1C below the landmark target
The study said the globe’s estimate of 1.49C made it the fifth-warmest February across the planet to define pre-industrial levels above the 1850-1900 average.
The goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to keep global warming below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The UN has warned of the possibility of sustaining that goal “virtually zero”With the UK Associated with a rise of at least 2C over the next 25 years.
The researchers based their latest assessment on Copernicus’ own ERA5 dataset, compiled from hourly readings of weather data, which it describes as the climate research standard.
It said the warmest February was recorded in 2024.
In the Arctic, average sea ice in February decreased by 5%, making it the third-lowest month on record. In the Antarctic, monthly sea ice extent is close to the monthly average.
Read more: Wettest winter on record for parts of UK
Image: Copernicus Climate Change Service
A sharp divide in Europe’s climate
Study author Samantha Burgess, climate strategy leader at the European Center for Medium-Range Climate Forecasts (ECMRW), said there was a “really strong divide across Europe” with Scandinavia and eastern Europe “colder than average”, while the opposite conditions prevailed in much of western and southern Europe.
Ms Burgess told Sky News one reason was the position of the polar jet stream, which had “moved further south in the winter, which is why we’ve had a very dull, very wet winter”.
Its unusual position along a series of narrow bands of very moist air, named atmospheric rivers, “led to heavy rainfall in western and southern Europe. It triggered widespread flooding and landslides, particularly across Iberia and western France,” the study said.
Impact of climate change
Ms Burgess said February’s extreme events “highlight the increasing impacts of climate change and the need for global action”.
It’s part of our changing winters and changing seasonality, he said, adding that summers are “getting longer, starting earlier and ending later. They’re getting more intense”.
In contrast, winter “gets less cold, and sometimes they get less”.
‘Constrained Climate Model’
Met Office weather spokesman Graham Madge said recent wet weather in the UK, particularly in Cornwall, had seen the wettest winter on record, with a “blocked weather pattern over Scandinavia and an active jet stream from cold conditions in North America”.
“There is no strong evidence linking this particular weather pattern to climate change, (but) climate change is expected to lead to warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers in the UK,” Mr Madge said.
‘Human-caused’ emissions
This is “a trend already seen in rainfall records, with increased winter rainfall,” he said.
Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the “severe weather extremes” seen during the month were “a classic winter battleground between warm and wet and cold and dry conditions over Europe”.
“Heavy and persistent rainfall in Western Europe has been further intensified by excess moisture from air from the oceans, which are warmer than they would otherwise be, due to progressive warming from human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases,” he said.
Dr Michael Byrne, reader in climate science at the University of St Andrews, said the UK “is in a fairly humid part of the world and is affected by this warm air, (creating) more moisture when it rains”.
He warned that “we can expect more flooding events, more rain storms, not only in winter but also in summer, giving large amounts of rain in a short period of time.”
This, he said, “is something we expect the UK to see more of in the future”.
Ms Burgess agreed, saying “we need to adapt” by recognizing that climate change is “here to stay” and pointing to a doubling in the number of cities with adaptation measures since 2018, adding that she is “optimistic”.
