Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (BTC) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while demand for gold ETFs has begun to slow after nine straight months of inflows. This shift comes even as gold prices remain high and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.
With these opposing trends in ETF flow and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now studying data that may indicate a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets.
Are ETF flows starting to turn around?
According to Kobeissi Letter, the largest U.S. ETF backed by gold, GLD recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the biggest daily outflow in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% drop in gold prices, the steepest decline since the January 30 sale.
Gold ETFs attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow. The latest breakout points to investors looking to profit after gold’s massive rally in 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs have moved in the opposite direction over the past month. 30-day net inflows rose to $273 million on March 6 from $1.9 billion on February 6.
Asset data measured in domestic units show the difference more clearly. The Bitcoin ETF balance moved to a net gain of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on February 6. Gold ETF holdings fell by 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces over the same period.
Native units represent the actual assets held by the funds, not the dollar value of those shares. BTC or ounce tracking isolates the actual accumulation or distribution without the distortion caused by price movements.
Horizon’s head of development, Joe Consorti, summed up the current trend by saying:
“Gold stalls as Bitcoin climbs. BTC is set to lead the % gain over gold over the past month as the US economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The expected risk → risk rotation approach may continue.”
Related: Bitcoin’s rally may not end as retail trades below $70K: Sentiment
Gold rallies ahead of Bitcoin recovery
In his “Looking Ahead to 2026” report, published in late December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 would be the fourth largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. In terms of past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is likely in the latter stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuyper said
“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns to outperform. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin is the leader in the future.”
However, rotation can take some time in the market.
As shown in the chart, it took BTC about 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a stable trend that outperformed gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. This period was a consolidation phase before the start of an upward trend in the ratio.
The BTC-to-gold ratio is currently trading near the same consolidation zone seen in the previous phases of the 2022-2023 cycle.
Kuiper also added that both assets could benefit from persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek value-neutral stores outside traditional monetary systems.
The ongoing US-Israel-Iran war has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets that previously supported gold’s escape during periods of geopolitical stress.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lynne Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years after gold’s surge in the past few months.
Related: When buying Bitcoin, don’t expect profits for at least 3 years: Info
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