Key considerations:
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A rise in oil prices often precedes a 20% rise in the value of Bitcoin, although initial market reactions remain volatile and unpredictable.
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Bitcoin currently mirrors tech stocks with an 81% correlation to the Nasdaq 100, making it less sensitive to oil prices.
Oil prices soared to $101 a barrel on Sunday, a 55% gain in ten days, the biggest move in history. The event sent the S&P 500 to a 10-week low on Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a positive initial reaction, with prices rising 16% from February 28 to Wednesday, although it eventually erased all the movement by Sunday.
Traders are now questioning whether the price of Bitcoin could suffer from the uncertainty caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran. Persistently high oil prices could drive inflation and consumer spending, while the US job market remains weak. Bitcoin prices have benefited from sudden jumps in oil prices in the past, but the gains usually last for four weeks.
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from June 11, 2025 rose 15% in the week following the assessment of international organizations on the enrichment of nuclear warheads by Iran and Israel, two days after airstrikes in the region. Initially, the price of Bitcoin fell 8% from $110,300 to $101,000, but it eventually retraced this move and gained 10% in four weeks.
On March 27, 2023, WTI prices rose 16% in eight days as a legal dispute led to 450,000 bpd exports from Kurdistan and a sudden cut in production from OPEC. The price of Bitcoin increased by 12% in two weeks, but could not maintain the upward momentum and returned to the initial level of $ 28,000 in less than a month.
The 29% weekly increase in the price of WTI oil, which began on February 28, 2022, after the all-out Russian military invasion of Ukraine, led to global sanctions on Russian oil exports. The price of Bitcoin rose 17% in the first two days, but these gains evaporated at the end of the week. However, the price of Bitcoin eventually rose by 25% over the next three weeks as it reached $48,000.
WTI rallied 23% in the nine days since November 2, 2020, as traders awaited the spread of the COVID-19 vaccine and US oil inventories showed an unexpected decline. The price of Bitcoin followed this trend, gaining 16% during this nine-day window, ultimately gaining 45% from its initial price of $13,500 for the month.
related to: Oil falls from 25% growth as G7 weighs emergency stockpile release
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach $79,200 by the end of March
On average, bitcoin has risen 20% over the past four weeks, WTI has risen 15% or more over 10 days. These cases occurred between November 2020 and June 2025, which includes the bear market of 2022 and most of 2023. However, four events are not statistically significant enough to prove a strong correlation.
The price of Bitcoin has recently been more closely related to the technology sector, as shown by the current correlation of 81% with the Nasdaq 100 index. If Iran or the US decline sooner than expected, the stock market could recover and Bitcoin should benefit from this upward momentum.
Ultimately, the duration of the war in Iran will determine whether Bitcoin can reach $79,200 by the end of March. This target would be in line with the 20% historical average gain from $66,000 seen since the February 28 oil rally.
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