A large NASA satellite will crash back to Earth on Tuesday (March 10) after nearly 14 years in orbit, experts say.
The spacecraft in question is the 1,323-pound (600-kilogram) Van Allen Probe A, which was launched in August 2012 along with its twin Van Allen Probe B to study radiation belts around the earth after which they are named.
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“NASA expects that most of the spacecraft will burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry,” NASA officials wrote in a update on Monday. “The risk of harming someone on Earth is low – about 1 in 4,200.”
The low risk of damage – about 0.02% – takes into account the fact that water covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface. So any parts that survive re-entry are likely to splash into the open ocean, not land in or around a city.
The Space Force’s estimated reentry time is just that – an estimate. It will be updated over the next few hours as more and better data comes in.
The Van Allen probes – originally called the Radiation Belt Storm Probes – were launched into a highly elliptical orbit, which took them as far away from Earth as 30,415 kilometers and brought them as close as 618 kilometers.
The mission was intended to last only two years, but the spacecraft managed to continue operating until July 2019 (Probe B) and October 2019 (Probe A). They collected data that researchers and mission planners analyze to this day.
“By reviewing archived data from the mission, scientists are studying the radiation belts around Earth, which are key to predicting how solar activity affecting satellites, astronauts and even systems on Earth such as communications, navigation and power grids,” NASA officials said in the same statement. “By observing these dynamic regions, the Van Allen Probes helped improve forecasts of space weather events and their potential consequences.”
Both probes were expected to remain in Earth orbit until 2034. However the sun has been unexpectedly active in recent years, causing the planet’s atmosphere to expand and the frictional drag on orbiting satellites to increase.
Such effects likely also shortened Van Allen Probe B’s time in space, but less dramatically than the twin’s. Probe B is not expected to re-enter until 2030, according to NASA.
