Plans around spring agriculture for Canadians will change drastically after the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz – and the spillover effects on global fertilizer supplies.
The narrow waterway near Iran handles a significant portion of global energy and fertilizer supplies and is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, but shows no signs of reopening due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
According to Craig Ruhl, Gromark’s vice president of crop nutrients, the Sea Channel accounts for one-third of the global trade in these nutrients, such as urea, nitrogen, sulfur and phosphates.
Currently, Iran is threatening any ships that try to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
“As a globally traded commodity, any impact on global fertilizer production could be felt throughout the market,” Michael Bourque, president and CEO of Fertilizer Canada, said in an emailed statement to Global News.
“Ongoing instability in the region has the potential to disrupt global trade flows, especially through key corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, which plays a key role in the movement of energy, fertilizer and many other commodities.”
The timing is never ideal for those who need these products, as seasons change and demand soars.
“The whole world is competing for the limited supply available, and we’re preparing to go into the fields and plan for next year’s crops in most of North America in the next 30 to 60 days, so the timing is pretty dire,” Ruhl said.
‘You’re going to get into trouble’
Canada produced 32.8 percent of the world’s total potash in 2024 — about 76.1 million tons — the most important mineral in fertilizers.
It remains the world’s largest potash producer, according to Natural Resources Canada.
But that doesn’t mean Canada or Canadian farmers are completely insulated from global supply chain issues. Ryan Flitton, one of the owners of Twin Valley Farms in Ontario, emphasized that there is more to creating fertilizer than just potash.
Get daily national news
Get the day’s top news, political, economic and current affairs headlines delivered to your inbox once a day.
“Obviously, there are nitrogen and other nutrients that we need, nutrients that we don’t produce in Canada. So, to make the perfect product to help farmers, you need more than just potash,” he said.
“And of course, you need affordable fertilizers. That’s not always the case in Canada; most of the fertilizers we actually produce in Canada are for export markets, really.
“What we produce, we don’t consume, but we actually consume things that we import. And that’s why it’s a bit of a challenge..”
Ruhl said the biggest impact Canadian ranchers face is fluctuating prices.
“This is compounded by how farmers are facing a sustained period of negative ‘farmgate’ economics, so higher prices on inputs are compounding the challenges of farmgate economics.”
Philip Rumley, a grain producer at North Rumley Farm in southern Alberta, said the farm is “absolutely” seeing the effects of rising fertilizer prices.
“Rumour has it that we have gone up to $1,200 a ton for urea. So, if you don’t buy your fertilizer now, because it’s less than a month before we go, you’re going to be in trouble,” he said.
“If they close the Strait of Hormuz, nothing goes in and nothing goes out. So it affects the entire global price of everything because we’re locked into the global market.”
However, Mike Von Masso, A A food economist at the University of Guelph said it’s not just potash that’s affected.
“If you see it moving through the Strait of Hormuz into Canada, it’s some liquefied natural gas coming into eastern Canada, some crude into eastern Canada, if we have pipelines or other ways to move it, we can supply from western Canada,” he said.
“So, we may see some minor effects on commodity rates.”
Bork said “Farmers are encouraged to contact their local agricultural retailer for the most up-to-date information on fertilizer supply in their area.”
It’s not the first hurdle Canadian fertilizer suppliers have faced this year
This is not the first revolution for Canada’s fertilizer and agriculture industry.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizers in December 2025 “if we have to,” putting pressure on the future of the Canadian fertilizer business.
The Trump administration had earlier lifted tariffs on several key imported fertilizers, effective November 13, 2025. That comes after March 2025 imposed tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Canada and Mexico.
Canadian potash imports to the US initially faced a 25 percent tariff, which was quickly reduced to 10 percent.
Despite the uncertainty, Saskatchewan-based company Nutrien, the world’s largest crop inputs and services provider, told The Canadian Press in February that it “expects potash sales volumes this year to be between 14.1 million tonnes and 14.8 million tonnes.”
Along with the change of seasons, the demand for products is reaching an annual peak at uncertain times.
“Manure has two seasons (fall and spring) and is unique to each type of geography,” Ruhl said.
“But when I think about our eastern Canadian business, it’s primarily a spring market, especially outside of nitrogen products, and those will probably be more impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
— With files from Heather Eurex-West of Global News.
(tags to translate)Iran
