Despite what two questionable NBA owners whispered to Pablo Torre, I don’t believe the NBA is rigging the draft lottery. Certainly, it makes some kind of cheeky, intuitive sense that the league would want to reward the Dallas Mavericks with a generational prospect in Cooper Flagg. For inexplicably giving their key superstar to a major franchise in the league to increase their sales value. Alternatively, the league could strengthen his status as an international favorite by offering Victor Wembanyama to the San Antonio Spurs. But the league clearly has more to lose than to gain by stacking the deck. Dedicated corkboarders can also engineer ex post facto rationales for rigged lottery results. The Orlando Magic have acquired Paolo Banchero in 2022. That’s because the league did Disney a favor amid a slump in its stock price. The Atlanta Hawks received their first pick in 2024 as part of a groundbreaking attempt to rig the election.
But I think the NBA must Rig the lottery. On a recent episode of Zach Lowe’s podcast, Lowe brought up the idea of the draft order being broken down into the basketball equivalent of a Pope Conclave. I like this idea. The concept of the lottery, which has recently lowered odds and is certainly likely to change after this summer, is that by partially decoupling draft order from win-loss record, the league can discourage tanking. As long as the two are connected at all, this will always be an incomplete solution. The incentives are so strong, especially when one player can dramatically change the fortunes of a franchise and do it on a well-below-market contract for up to five years.
But if the NBA were to openly rig the lottery, other advantages (other than the ability to destroy on-court product) could be rewarded. No longer can the worst team in the NBA suffer huge losses to guarantee a better draft pick. They also won’t be jumping through any weird hoops that might be set up for them next year, like counting wins for draft position after a certain date. No, a rigged system can reward nobility for abstract values like honor, virtue, and suffering.
False (or reverse) meritocracy will give way to a system more akin to heraldic chivalry. Whatever body decides the choice will make a spiritual judgment. What franchise exemplifies the most powerful combination of purity of heart and hipness of record? Simply put, who is the most valuable?
There are multiple contenders for the 2026 No. 1 overall pick, and the consensus is that this is a draft class deep in serious talent. I like Brigham Young’s AJ Dybantsa the best, so his name will get that score. We’ve looked at this question many times before, and now it’s time to answer it again. As always, we start at the bottom of the standings and work our way north, assigning each team a point out of 10.
Sacramento Kings
Meanwhile, Sacramento has the worst record in the NBA through seemingly organic means, without the punishable chemical additives that pollute the level of competition of Utah or Indiana. The Kings entered the season with a serious belief that they could compete for a fringe playoff spot, only to realize that trying to win NBA games in 2026 by playing 2013 basketball with good players from 2017 was a recipe for disaster. Doug Christie is a good guy who tries hard, but he’s one of the worst managers in modern history, and he’s getting paid like a deserved stopgap. The team only recently shut down its “stars,” which led the Kings to immediately and hilariously start winning every game against their fellow bathroom-bound teams. If you squint at this team you might see some sort of ethical problem.
On the other hand, comparing the Kings’ bone-chilling stupidity to willful incompetence isn’t that simple, and the Conclave has to account for the fact that a potentially game-changing player will likely rot in Sacramento. So I’m splitting the difference. Divancha score: 5.7.
Indiana Pacers
One thing smart observers of draft lottery reform will point out is that any move that separates record from draft position carries the potential for a good team to pick first. I don’t care about this at all, and I think broad competitive parity is more helpful to owners’ valuation of franchises than a meaningful improvement to the game. Who wants 20 different teams within a few wins of 41 when you can have a total of eight juggernauts fighting it out in the playoffs?
Indiana almost won the Finals last year and is looking to put together another strong performance with Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac hoping to be healthy next year. The Pacers are making the most of their gap year and have been truly committed to some nasty basketball over the past few months. On the other hand they necessary Since they have fewer top picks than anyone else on this list, they can also guarantee immediate playoff time for a rookie, which would shake things out. so, Divancha score: 6.0.
Brooklyn Nets
Once again the Brooklyn Nets are trash. Michael Porter Jr. has had a surprisingly good season, but none of the five first-round picks currently on the roster have really emerged. They are completely overshadowed by the WNBA’s New York Liberty and howl when Danny Wolf scores. This is always annoyingly rare, but the bottom line is, they really need The Guy. I gave them the highest Flagg Score last season, but their incompetence this year isn’t what it used to be, so they’ll get some flack. Divancha score: 7.4.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are pursuing the worst of Pacers style, but there’s no evidence of a Finals game on which to base a victory. I like the Trae Young and Anthony Davis trade theory. Because the Wizards didn’t give up any real value for a wayward former superstar. Actually, I’m not a huge fan of this move. Because I’m skeptical that either of these guys will ever get close to an All-NBA level again.
But rebuilding is never as simple as it seems for the Thunder, and it has to be attempted. In theory, being competitive would be a fun move for a team that has been on a stink for a long time, and adding a cool young guy with a bunch of cool young guys and uncool old guys would be really cool. They don’t need the top pick as much as some teams, but that’s just one part of the equation. Divancha score: 5.6.
utah jazz
The Jazz are the face of the NBA’s tanking crisis. It’s pretty comical considering how disciplined they were after last year’s fiasco. The organization said all the right things about the competition and the team was very enthusiastic initially, but it didn’t match reality. If the Oklahoma City Thunder fall out of the top eight, the first-round draft pick they would be owed was too valuable an asset to give up in the name of fame. So they went back to the trash can. Jaren Jackson Jr. and all.
Like the Wizards, the Jazz will attempt to win a championship next season. I understand that this team is incredibly annoying. I know they play in Utah, which also sucks, and I acknowledge that giving them AJ Dybantsa would simultaneously reward Utah’s bad behavior and validate the BYU name-image-pseudo-basketball-industrial complex. But I really like Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George, and I’m darkly intrigued by the potential of a huge George–Ace Bailey–Markkanen–Jackson Jr.–Walker Kessler super turbo lineup with either Dybantsa or Kansas’ Darryn Peterson coming off the bench. Divancha score: 6.2.
Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans)
go away. Divancha score: 0.9.
Dallas Mavericks
What makes this particular lottery so fascinating is that it actually feels like a huge window of opportunity as it closes. The Mavs, Pacers, Jazz and Wizards are not eligible for next season, so they have just one chance before they have to work hard to win. Moreover, in theory, lottery reform means that the hitherto semi-guaranteed safe bet on stinking ass becomes even weaker. Too many teams bet big on signing really good players in this draft. By any measure, there are more star players in the draft class than there appear to be. So a lot of teams will get upset and leave.
The Mavericks have less need for a 2026 top pick than other teams, having already been saved from Nets-style oblivion via the Flagg lottery. Also, this is not a team or task that actually deserves compensation. Everyone would be so mad if the Mavs won the lottery again. As exciting as this is the prospect of Flagg landing an elite running mate, ultimately others are more qualified. Divancha score: 3.5.
memphis grizzlies
Do you remember Ja Morant? The NBA’s one-and-done future is now all but forgotten. They’ve traded all his friends and he’s drifting to a team to trade to too, but honestly he can’t because no one wants his ass right now. It’s a real shame to see him become completely irrelevant to the league so quickly, and I imagine he’ll be on the move this offseason as Memphis clears the deck for its first full rebuild in a long time. The Grizzlies have some difficult questions to answer. Can Zach Edey get healthy? Is Cedric Coward good enough to be trusted as the best second option? How much responsibility is too much to give to Santi Aldama?
All of this makes the Grizzlies a good candidate for the top pick, as the presence of Dybantsa or Peterson could make these questions less stressful. I liked the Grizzlies when they were good, but mostly because the incredibly obnoxious style of play they had in the last two eras was so unique that I’m not sure they’ll be the same in the next era. My point is that I am not completely impressed. Divancha score: 4.7.
chicago bulls
Sure, okay, who cares? Divancha score: 3.9.
New Orleans Pelicans (via Milwaukee Bucks)
Everything we said about potentially busting No. 1 picks applies here. New Orleans may be one of the dumber, more miserably run franchises in the NBA than the Sacramento Kings. At least the Pelicans have more talent on their roster and are doing the noble thing of trying to win right now. It’s pretty funny to see a team that doesn’t have draft picks start the season making huge plays with young players and end the season leaning on veterans. I like Derik Queen and I think Jeremiah Fears would be cool too. But none of that moves the needle much. Divancha score: 4.1.
