Vijayakumar added that the biggest uncertainty at the moment is the duration of the war. This lack of transparency can also affect the behavior of foreign investors. He noted that foreign institutional investors have once again turned into aggressive sellers in Indian markets after a brief period of buying in February. At the same time, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Al Kaabi told the Financial Times that global oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel if the conflict in the Middle East escalates and disrupts oil purchases from Gulfstream XX?
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, the higher timeframes continue to indicate strong bullish momentum, with prices holding above key moving averages and key support levels. A move above Rs 9,300 could push prices to a range of Rs 9,500 to Rs 9,650, he said. Immediate support is placed at Rs 8,800 to Rs 8,500, while sustaining below Rs 8,400 could weaken the short-term trend and push prices towards Rs 8,000. Strong structural support is seen at Rs 7,000-7,200. Overall, the outlook remains bullish if the breakout above continues.
U.S. WTI crude oil opened with a gap at $98 and is currently trading around $115, reflecting a nearly 26% increase, said Amir Makda, commodities and currencies analyst at Choice Broking. He noted that this is the biggest jump in oil prices since 2020, largely due to unrest in the Middle East. Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend has raised concerns about oil supplies in the region. He added that the sharp rise against the US dollar, which is now trading above the 99 level, has also affected the movement of crude prices. At the same time, countries like Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have reported a decrease in the overall production of oil.
Key support in view of Rs 9,000 – 8,127 respectively. On the other hand, the immediate resistance will be at Rs 10,500 and a break above this level will accelerate the upward movement in crude oil prices towards 11,300 in the coming sessions.”
The ongoing war, which began on February 28, could leave consumers and businesses around the world dealing with higher fuel costs for weeks or even months. Even if the war ends soon, suppliers may face challenges such as damaged infrastructure, logistical disruptions and shipping risks in the region.
Domestic brokerage JM Financial said that every dollar increase in crude oil prices increases India’s annual import bill by nearly $2 billion. Prolonged tensions could raise logistics and marine insurance costs, disrupt Gulf shipping routes and widen the trade balance. The INR faces a near-term depreciation bias with possible RBI intervention through foreign exchange reserves. The transmission mechanism is obvious: higher oil prices increase the risk of inflation; Higher inflation raises bond yields; And increasing yields reduce the equity value multiplier.
(Disclaimer: The suggestions, recommendations, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. They do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
