Bitcoin is fighting death crosses and rejecting the $68,000 week

Bitcoin (BTC) in the second week of March on the edge of the markets focused on the Middle East.

• Bitcoin erased its last breakout attempt and closed the weekly candle below key resistance.

• Oil volatility and related inflationary pressures are the main focus of traders this week.

• Bitcoin has two new death crosses, a stern warning for bulls.

• Derivatives markets indicate that a wider Bitcoin price swing could be coming.

• The Sharks show little interest in taking a $74,000 profit during the trip.

Bitcoin is back in a ‘boring bear market’

Bitcoin sellers did their best to push the market lower by the end of Sunday, with BTC/USD nearing $65,600 on Bitstamp.

Data from TradingView then rebounded, but it wasn’t enough to avoid a weekly close below the major long-term trend line.

As Cointelegraph reported, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is particularly important in bear markets, as its loss acts as support, leading to further market declines.

“Bitcoin has almost completely canceled its recovery from earlier this week,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital said in an X post on the subject.

“The 200-week EMA will act as a price ceiling until proven otherwise.”

Rekt Capital pointed to Bitcoin’s trip to $74,000 amid widespread volatility in the asset class thanks to the Middle East conflict.

“The divergence led to a quick sell-off over the weekend. The outlook for $BTC remains unchanged; it’s a boring bear market until proven otherwise,” said trader Jelle.

As market participants await signs, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michael van de Poppe sees BTC’s overall price action as far from a worst-case scenario.

“Bitcoin is still stuck in a range. It’s not bad, it’s actually very strong, considering: – Oil rose another 15% on Monday morning, the highest level in 22 years. – Gold and commodities fell – Nasdaq fell significantly,” he told X followers on Monday.

As Cointelegraph reported, long-term BTC price forecasts favor a macro bottom of $50,000 or less.

Oil volatility puts focus on US inflation

This week’s US macro data will certainly attract more attention than usual, as geopolitical developments trigger inflation warnings.

The February release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) along with delayed Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) data from January will be revised, along with US Q4 GDP.

While PCE is known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation indicator, it’s CPI that’s currently in the spotlight due to its sensitivity to oil prices.

Continued oil supply shocks targeting the Strait of Hormuz may not be reflected in February’s CPI reading, while January’s reading of the index came in lower than expected.

The closure of Hormuz was the biggest supply disruption ever, a business source told The Kobeissi Letter.

“The current supply shock is roughly the size of 2-6 COMBINED” with a daily drawdown of more than 20 million barrels, he estimated.

However, oil prices rose sharply on Monday after the G7 countries proposed the immediate release of oil reserves, which could amount to 400 million barrels.

BREAKING: US oil prices are currently attempting one of their biggest swings in history.

At 10:30 PM ET, US oil prices were up +30% on the day.

The FT then reported that the G7 countries were considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.

Less than… pic.twitter.com/G1uRHvkFxX

— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026

Further, the business source Mosaic Asset Company emphasized the long-term consequences of the oil crisis for the Fed.

In the latest edition of his regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, he wrote, “rising oil and gas prices threaten to dampen consumer spending and increase inflationary pressures. The prospect of rising inflation creates uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy.”

Mosaic noted that the previous increase in goods coincided with a CPI increase of 9% in 2022.

“The trend in other inflation-sensitive sectors, such as energy producers, is also a signal of the prospect of rising inflation,” he added.

Bitcoin Death Crusades Are Growing

Not only was Bitcoin unable to save its 200-week EMA trendline as support during the week’s close, but it also saw a new “death cross”.

The 21-week simple moving average (SMA) broke below its 100-week counterpart after the week ended, showing a classic bearish signal that reinforces the prospect of further BTC price declines.

Last week, Keith Alan, co-founder of stock trading material Indicators, suggested that the death cross negates any relief at the top of the local trading range.

Specifically, Alan said that the cross “is likely to be a precursor to the next leg, unless we get a big steam catalyst.”

Elsewhere, market participants are concerned about the death cross on smaller time frames: the 50-period and 200-period SMA on the three-day chart.

In a recent analysis, the trading platform TradingShort warned that the market death crossing over the course of three days caused a 50% drop in the price of BTC.

“Given that it has also tested the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from its Death Cross level in two of the past three bear cycles, Bitcoin should target the $40,000 – $36,000 zone,” X told followers.

Derivatives chase upward relief

Looking for signs of a market shift, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has some good news for Bitcoin bulls this week.

In some of its latest research, CryptoQuant reveals an inverse pattern playing out in the derivatives market of the major exchange, Binance.

The Binance Derivatives Market Index, which combines various market indicators to derive an overall momentum, currently simulates the bottom of the local BTC price in 2024 and 2025.

“The index has recently fallen to around 0.35, the level seen in July-August 2024 and below the 0.43 in April 2025,” concluded contributor Amr Taha in a Quicktake blog post.

“Historically, readings near these levels have often occurred during major Bitcoin market bottoms, before the price later moved to new highs.”

Taha acknowledged that the trend may not continue as before, but stressed that the resulting impulses have “weakened significantly”.

Whales remain on the edge of more than $70,000

The Bitcoin selling panic seems to be a skill game as the whales send less and less BTC to the exchanges.

related to: Bitcoin’s relationship with tech stocks is overblown: NYDIG

CryptoQuant shows that the increase in returns to Binance on March 7 was caused by coins that were previously moved during the previous week.

This contrasts with an import event from February, during which coins that had been dormant for the past six to 12 months were returned to Binance accounts.

“Such moves are often interpreted as a possible shift in sentiment among some investors, where some owners may be preparing to sell or hedge their positions,” Taha said.

“In many cases, savings from older coins may reflect an increased level of caution or pessimism in parts of the market.”

As BTC/USD broke above $70,000 last week, Bitcoin sharks refused to take profits, as evidenced by their Binance gains.

From March 1 to March 8, whale imports fell from $8.8 billion to $6.6 billion, according to CryptoQuant.

“Interestingly, this decline occurred while the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $65,000 and $72,000, which indicates that large investors are not increasing their deposits on the exchange despite the current volatility of the market,” Taha said.