Rising oil prices and inflation data are driving crypto markets this week

It’s a busy week ahead, with a focus on oil prices and key inflation reports on the US economic calendar.

Crypto markets saw another Monday morning as digital assets erased last week’s gains and returned to their sideways channel.

The only thing going up right now is oil prices, with crypto, commodities and US stock futures all down on Monday morning.

U.S. President Donald Trump said oil prices would “decline rapidly” after Iran’s nuclear threat is over, adding that it was “a very small price to pay.”

Economic events from March 9 to 13

The price of crude oil rose to $116 per barrel on Sunday evening as oil futures rose. This has led to huge volatility in the stock futures and crypto markets, which are falling.

In the letter, Kobeissi described it as “one of those days that will be referenced for decades to come,” with oil prices surging 25% on Sunday, wiping out more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock futures and adding “20 million barrels a day of oil supply signs offline without a slowdown.”

Next week will add to this volatility, starting on Wednesday with the CPI (consumer price index) data for February. There’s only one way inflation can go, with fuel prices rising.

A delayed reading of January’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumer spending (PCE) price index, at the Federal Reserve on Friday should add to the fire.

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Time is of the essence before the Fed’s March 18 rate-setting meeting, which carries a 95.5% chance of a rate change, according to CME Group futures markets.

The PCE print is expected to show that prices rose 0.4% in January, matching December’s pace and marking the second consecutive “warm” reading.

This week’s highlights:

1. US Stock Market and Oil Futures – 18:00 AND TODAY

2. February Home sales data available – Tuesday

3. Information on inflation in February – Wednesday

4. US Q4 2025 GDP Data – Friday

5. January PCE inflation data – Friday

6. Job Information for January JOLTS…

— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 8, 2026

Rising gasoline prices linked to the Middle East conflict could weigh on inflation expectations and consumer spending behavior as broader markets move into oversold conditions.

Crypto market outlook

High-risk crypto-assets are particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, with markets shedding $40 billion to $2.36 trillion over the weekend.

Bitcoin saw resistance at $68,000 on Sunday and fell below $66,000 before recovering slightly during Asian trading on Monday morning. The asset remains in the middle of the channel depending on its range, but moves to the lower bands.

Ether prices saw similar declines, failing to recover $2,000 over the weekend and falling to $1,960 at the time of writing. Altcoins have been mostly flat over the past 24 hours.