Will Super Mario Movie Make Showtime for Nintendo Stock?

Alongside the Nintendo logo display on the table is the Nintendo Switch console, representing Nintendo’s gaming ecosystem and IP-driven strategy.

Nintendo sold 15 million Switch 2 consoles in months, but NTDOY stock still needs a catalyst to break through resistance.
An upcoming Super Mario movie sequel could boost high-margin IP revenue and boost investor sentiment.
Strong cash stocks and equities provide downside support as investors look for technical breakouts.
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Mario and Luigi are two of the most popular characters in the Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTCMKTS: NTDOY ) universe. The company hopes the brothers will help build on their popularity with the upcoming release of “Super Mario Galaxy Movie” in April.

The film is a sequel to the popular “Super Mario Bros. Movie” that hits theaters in 2023. To the surprise of some, the film was a box office success, boosting sales of Nintendo’s intellectual property (IP).

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It’s no surprise, then, that Nintendo expects the sequel to be as popular as the original, if not more so. The film’s release comes almost a year to the day since Nintendo released its Switch 2 console.

In its latest earnings report, the company flashed through cumulative sales of 15 million Switch 2 consoles in the fourth week of December 2025. This makes it the fastest-selling dedicated video game platform released by the company.

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Before the release of the movie, Nintendo is scheduled to release the game “Super Mario Bros. Wonder”, exclusively for the Switch 2. This is just one of several innovations the company has planned for the 40th anniversary of Super Mario Bros.

This fits with Nintendo’s strategy to rely on IP as a revenue stream that can help facilitate the acceleration of console sales. IP makes up only a fraction of a company’s total revenue. For example, in the first nine months of the company’s 2026 fiscal year, Nintendo reported $54.5 billion in IP-related revenue.

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This was only 3% of the company’s total sales during this period. But this is the type of income that goes straight to the bottom line.

Even before the launch of the Switch 2, Nintendo faced obstacles in the form of tariffs. The company mitigated some of these issues by moving some production to Vietnam.

However, ahead of the company’s latest report, there were growing concerns about a decline in Nintendo’s earnings, which are increasingly affected by memory chip prices. Supporting this thinking, the company reported year-over-year (YOY) operating margin declines in the first three quarters of its 2026 fiscal year.

This is bad news. The good news is that the Switch 2, like its predecessor, the Switch, has a multi-year sales window. So even though the company has enjoyed brisk sales so far, there is still a sizable market, which may begin to take off with the release of the Super Mario Bros. movie.

Another concern is how artificial intelligence (AI) will affect the gaming sector. The fear is that Nintendo will see a loss in revenue (and earnings) because individuals can create games themselves using agent AI.

There will be something to it, but it seems that most consumers will experience AI without creating it themselves. That puts Nintendo in a sweet spot, especially if it finds ways to use AI to make its titles faster.

One concern after the earnings report is the joint US-Israeli military conflict with Iran. This is likely to delay some shipments of the Switch 2, which is traveling by sea.

Nintendo stock has been a volatile investment over the past 12 months. The 52-week range for NTDOY stock is $13.05 to $24.92. Not surprisingly, the 52-week high coincided with a two-month surge in Nintendo stock that peaked in mid-August after the Switch 2 was released in June. Since then, the NTDOY stock chart has shown a bearish pattern. However, it doesn’t look like a falling knife situation. The stock appears to have found its bottom around the earnings report.

But it is not clear when the reversal will occur, as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which acts as resistance, stopped the upward movement in early March. Investors would like to see a breakout above this level with strong volume to confirm a pullback.

The NTDOY stock chart is showing support below earnings.

The best-case scenario for Nintendo is that the US economy will continue to grow. This will generally increase consumer discretionary stock. But for Nintendo in particular, customers who might have put off buying a Switch 2 might become customers. Quick, orderly resolution of geopolitical concerns and continued clarity on tariffs will strengthen the business case.

It may take a quarter or more to play. At the same time, Nintendo pays a safe profit. The company also has more than $15 billion in cash on its balance sheet to go with a market capitalization of about $73 billion as of this writing.

Article “Will Super Mario Movie Make Showtime for Nintendo Stock?” Originally published by MarketBeat.

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