Has Bitcoin (BTC) already bottomed this cycle?

Most of the responses we received were very promising for BTC. Here is the most interesting part.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to $60,000 in early February, marking a massive 52% decline. This put the asset in bear market territory, at least according to most analysts, many of whom started an even more painful decline for BTC.

The situation worsened as Israel and the US went into direct military conflict against Iran last week, and the cryptocurrency quickly fell to its local lows. However, it changed its trajectory in the following days and reached the monthly peak of $74,000.

Although it failed there, it is still trading around $70,000, which is more than 15% higher than the early February low. The question we decided to ask Gemini and ChatGPT is whether they believe that BTC has already bottomed out in this period.

At the bottom?

ChatGPT began by acknowledging that such a 50%+ drop is “very normal for a Bitcoin bull cycle correction” and doesn’t necessarily mean the asset is in the depths of a bear market. In fact, it noted that the $60,000 low is “historically consistent as a typical mid-cycle swing.”

It is likely that the bottom is 45%, which means that the crash of early February was the “ultimate meltdown of surrender”. Some of the reasons supporting this narrative include the completion of the 50% correction, improved liquidity and general sentiment, and strong buyer growth at these levels.

If this was indeed the bottom for BTC, the next steps would be to go up to $90,000 to break the psychological level of $100,000. Then comes the “parabolic phase”. Its bold prediction here would be a massive run to new highs between $180,000 and $220,000 this year.

Gemini also largely agreed that a bottom could be in, pointing out that there have already been several gear crashes, adding:

You may also like:

“During that February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and its distance from its 200-day moving average reached oversold levels that we haven’t seen since the 2022 bear market or the FTX collapse. The selling pressure just played itself out.”

Not down, not yet

Although both AIs suggested that the most likely scenario is that BTC has already bottomed, they left the door open for another correction, especially if the macro situation worsens.

Gemini said investors are turning away from speculative tech stocks, lingering concerns about inflation and geopolitical tensions, which mean the broader institutional appetite for risk assets “is shaky right now.”

ChatGPT gave a 20% chance for a “brutal washout” scenario, where the bears will regain control of the market and push the leading cryptocurrency to fresh lows between $48,000 and $52,000. However, it noted that there is a slight possibility of a sharp panic to $42,000, but “such a move is likely to be very short-lived.”