Bitcoin still fell below $70,000 selling pressure continues among crypto traders. It is worth noting that there is currently little sign of buying demand that could stop further declines and the current structure could still be abandoned. room for Bitcoin price to fall less than $60,000.
Interestingly, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin price action starts to look like a pattern it was created during the bear market of 2022, and long-term data shows that Bitcoin bear cycles have become progressively more intense over time.
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Bitcoin bear market cycles are declining
Technical analysis The entire Bitcoin price history shows that post-cycle reductions are compressed with almost mechanical precision. This pattern hiding in plain sight was developed by crypto analyst CrypFlow on social media platform X.
According to the analyst, every major bear market is down 93% since the 2011 rally. The peak was in 2013 after a 87% collapse. After the end of 2017, the market returned 84%. Finally, when the bull period reached its peak in 2021, the subsequent bear market ended with a relatively small decline of 78%.
The fact is that Bitcoin’s growth into a deeper and more liquid market has gradually reduced the kind of negative volatility that defined its early years. Based on this context, the next major bear market should not compete with the bloodshed of previous periods. Therefore, it can be believed that the worst case scenario is a 70% decline from the peak price of Bitcoin in 2025 at $126,080.
Extrapolating this forward, 70% of accidents from The 2025 bullish period places Bitcoin somewhere around $37,000. However, the analyst also noted that this price is not a bottom line forecast. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin in a bear market never closed a monthly candle below the top of the previous period. In this case, it would be about $69,000 above the previous period’s 2021 peak.
Dating period in 2022 and possible reduction to $50,000
Bitcoin bear market periods may decrease, but a look at the current price pattern shows that it may work like a bear market in 2022. This was revealed in a setup by a crypto analyst who goes by the name of Chiefy on X.
In that setting, The current price action of Bitcoin is placed side by side with the bear market of 2022 and both periods show what the sequence of the bear trap is followed by the bull trap.
In September 2022, Bitcoin recovered after a brutal fall to $18,000. However, this led to a bull trap around $21,000, which attracted buyers before prices fell and made new lows.
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According to this analysis, the script played in early 2026 is the same. In this case, the bear trap was Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 in February and then another bull trap. as it reached $74,000. If the 2022 analogy holds, this leap is not a recovery. This is a setup and the next Bitcoin price, the analyst warns, is around $50,000.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
