US government reviews of the war in Iran reportedly show that the Trump administration may be ill-equipped for a regime change war.
The Washington Post reported Saturday morning that a review of classified intelligence found that the war in Iran is unlikely to topple the Iranian establishment, despite the Trump administration’s desire to continue its attacks.
At the same time, Democrats warn that airstrikes against Iran are depleting U.S. stockpiles of certain weapons, a point of concern that arose during a closed-door briefing earlier this week between Trump administration officials and members of Congress.
Despite ongoing negotiations, the United States and Israel began bombing Iran last week, during a campaign that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian leaders. Iran has engaged in retaliatory attacks against Israel, US facilities in the region and several Middle Eastern countries that host US bases.
Since the attacks began, the Trump administration has claimed that Iran has attempted to negotiate a ceasefire, despite multiple reports to the contrary.
For years, Iran hawks in the United States have pushed for a regime change war, warning that Iran’s nuclear program has come close to producing a nuclear weapon. Since last April, Iran and the United States have engaged in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly said that the nuclear program is for purely civilian purposes.
Israel and the United States bombed Iranian nuclear facilities last June, causing a significant escalation of tensions between the countries. Negotiations continued, but despite them, the United States and Israel launched large-scale attacks against Iran last week.
The United States and Israel have been bombing Iran for a week now, attacking government buildings and military installations. They have also hit civil buildings, hospitals and schools. On the first day of the bombing campaign, 168 girls were killed in a direct attack on their school. The Associated Press later reported that the deadly attack likely came from the United States.
Trump spoke Saturday at the Shield of the Americas summit, a gathering of right-wing leaders from the Western Hemisphere in Florida, just hours after Iran’s president apologized to neighboring countries for missile attacks.
“We’re doing very well in Iran, you see the result,” Trump said. “And it’s been incredible. We shot down 42 Navy ships, some of them very large, in three days. That was the end of the Navy. We shot down the air force. We took down their communications and all telecommunications were gone.”
“They are bad people, they are just bad people,” he added. “Eight months ago, they would have had a nuclear weapon. And they’re crazy, and they would have used it, so we did the world a favor.”
However, US intelligence points to a different potential outcome, despite a protracted and aggressive war.
As the Post reported, a classified report from the National Intelligence Council shows that a bombing campaign cannot topple Iran’s military and clerical establishment. The report, completed in mid-February, outlined two possible actions by the United States. In both cases, the result would remain the same: Iran’s government would follow protocols to elect the successor to the country’s supreme leader.
After Khamenei’s assassination last week, the Iranian government quickly appointed an interim leadership council, made up of the Iranian president and other senior officials. The council is in charge of electing the country’s next supreme leader.
Intelligence officials said it was “unlikely” that Iran’s opposition would take control of the country.
With growing concerns about U.S. weapons arsenals, some Democratic senators worry that, with the rapid use of missiles and advanced weapons, other countries that rely on U.S. military assistance, such as Ukraine and others, will not be able to effectively protect themselves.
In an interview with Time magazine, Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal said he was “deeply concerned about Ukraine,” adding that the U.S. military’s “resources and supplies are limited, and I think at some point we will have a hard time telling Ukraine what is coming.”
Another expert who spoke to the AP said the concern was not the conflict in Iran, but possible military escalations in the future.
“I’m not particularly worried about us running out of resources during this conflict,” Ryan Brobst, a scholar focused on U.S. defense strategy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in an interview with the AP. “This is about deterring China and Russia the day after this conflict ends.”
Weapons manufacturers have already agreed to increase their production. On Friday, Lockheed Martin said it had agreed to “quadruple production of critical munitions.”
