Market analyst Ali Martinez notes a recent development in Bitcoin’s 3-day chart with significant bearish implications. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading just below $70,000 after a temporary breakout earlier this week. Bitcoin has now spent most of the last month in the $60,000-$70,000 range, after prices plunged to new market lows in late January/early February during a long bearish season.
Bitcoin set for another leg?
In an X post on March 6, Martinez shares key macro insights into Bitcoin’s price trajectory using historical 3-day trading chart data. An experienced analyst explains that the formation of a specific death cross has consistently preceded the final decline in price during a market cycle. In general, the death cross represents a bearish technical indicator where the short-term moving average is lower than the long-term moving average, indicating that the recent price momentum has weakened relative to the long-term trend and increasing selling pressure combined with a possible long-term decline.
A common variant of the death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average and is a key bearish indicator in the Bitcoin market, according to observations shared by Martinez. In 2013, Bitcoin dropped a significant 72% before the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared. The market leader then recorded an additional 52% decline in price before bottoming out.
Bitcoin $BTC The 3-day chart was one of the most important times from a macro perspective.
What is most important to me at this time is the interaction between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 6, 2026
A similar pattern can be seen in 2017, when Bitcoin fell 67% from the peak of the market to the appearance of the death cross, which would lead to an additional 50% fall. In the last market cycle, the death cross of the 50/200 SMA appeared in May 2022, when Bitcoin dropped a significant 58% from its cycle high. After that, BTC investors will experience another 46% depreciation.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently down 45.62% from the current $126,100 level after a long downtrend that has been going on since October. Notably, the price action on the 3-day chart also produced another death cross, indicating that a potential downside could occur based on precedents. In this case, Bitcoin could drop by an average of 49% to establish a potential around $33,500. However, Martinez cautions that this price adjustment does not guarantee a downward trend, but only a historical alignment with the bottom patterns of the macro.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,235 after falling 4.21% in the last 24 hours. Following positive price action, the daughter cryptocurrency rose 3.59% on its weekly chart. However, Bitcoin remains on a bullish trajectory as shown by the current loss of 4.49% on the monthly chart.
