Senior Labor politicians across London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, amid concerns the party faces a “political earthquake” in the capital in May after a surge in support for the Greens.
New data has been circulating privately suggesting that Labor could fall from first to fourth place in London in May’s election – losing control of all but two of its councils – with the Greens rising from first place to occupy nine.
“The government needs to show it is not taking the capital’s liberal and progressive voters for granted,” a senior London Labor figure warned.
Another added: “It’s going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swaths of voters on our progressive flank then we’re doomed. We need to start listening to them.”
A new technique, which is based on the MRP model and correctly predicted the election result for Gorton and Denton, predicts that the Labor Party, which controls 21 boroughs in London, could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens.
The model, from data firm Bombe, will scare Labor MPs, who currently hold 59 of London’s 75 parliamentary seats, including Keir Starmer, David Lammy, Steve Reed, Heidi Alexander and Wes Streeting.
The party was expected to lose more than half its council seats (many of them held by the Greens) in the Prime Minister’s own backyard, Camden, which would be left without overall control.
Senior party figures in the capital have warned Labor bosses to urgently address the Greens threat. Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, said last week that the Labor Party was facing an “existential threat” in some parts of the country in May.
“Without a change of course, we risk losing major Labor strongholds such as London, just as we did in the 2000s in Scotland. If we do not unite progressives, we risk opening the door to the darkness and division of the Reform,” he said.
Tony Travers, professor of local government at the LSE, told The Guardian that Labor was on course for a “political earthquake” in the London local elections if Bombe’s model reflected the actual result in May.
“It would deeply shock London Labor MPs. The National Party has taken London for granted for years and spent all its efforts targeting reform-prone areas, and now they have this huge exposed flank on their left.”
The Gradient Driven Regression Model (GBRM) uses real election results in the capital along with polling data from Deltapoll. The AI platform then predicts future voting behavior for five years.
Labor could remain with an absolute majority only in Newham and Redbridge councils, their forecasts are correct. The Greens, if they were to field candidates in all wards, could also choose Lewisham, Waltham Forest and Greenwich, as well as Wandsworth, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hounslow and Brent.
The Conservatives would go from five councils to six, winning Barnet, and Reform would keep one: Barking and Dagenham. However, Nigel Farage’s party would win 132 seats across London and would be the largest party in Havering.
The Labor Party could lose more than half of its council seats in the capital (741), according to the model. The Greens would get 530, the Conservatives 77 and the Liberal Democrats 72, as Labor comes under pressure on four fronts. They could also face challenges from pro-Gaza independents.
A further nine constituencies would be left without overall control: the Greens would be the largest party in four, Labor in two and one for Reform and one for the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats and Labor would have the same number of seats in Southwark, while the Conservatives and Greens would have the same number of seats in Westminster.
A Labor source said: “A slow round of applause for those self-proclaimed strategic geniuses who ridicule Labor values and think we can afford to sacrifice our core vote by imitating the performative cruelty of Suella Braverman.
“We must abandon the impasse of McSweeneyism before it is too late. When the Labor Party focuses on the cost of living we can begin to win back the progressive defectors we have lost and unite the coalition we need.”
The Greens, however, face a major challenge in selecting enough candidates to compete in each capital council seat, which they would need to do to achieve the modeled results.
Mike Joslin, chief executive of non-political Bombe, said: “The Labor Party faces annihilation in London in the face of a green wave. The data shows that core Labor voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza, social equality issues and Brexit. They want someone who shares their values.
“Along with the green wave, inner-city working class voters are angry at Labor for not improving their situation, and we will see some wards reshaped. Many places are now five-party fringes.”
Joslin, who in the past has provided input for a wide range of Labor figures including Starmer, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and Khan, added: “The Greens, if they can get the candidates, could capitalize and win a number of London councils. This could change the face of London government for a generation.”
A London Labor MP told The Guardian: “We can’t dismiss voters’ concerns and we need to work hard to rebuild trust. “We have some incredible Labor councils and councilors doing incredible work in their communities.
“That work risks being scrapped if Labor nationally does not start addressing progressive voters’ concerns around policies such as welfare cuts, the language the government uses on immigration and the response to Gaza.”
A second accused party bosses of refusing to listen to warnings about the Greens and addressing the threat on their progressive flank as “student politics”. “The chaos that will occur if London descends into green madness without housing built or investment in social care will be catastrophic for the poorest.”
