March Madness is almost here. With Selection Sunday, March 15, less than a week away, the college basketball world is shifting its focus to mid-major and undercover programs that can crack the bracket and capture the national imagination. To identify these spoilers, you have to look beyond the rankings. Often, the best Cinderella stories involve sentimental appeal, a veteran coach, or a program reaching the Big Dance for the first time.
While major powers dominate the headlines, these five teams pose a serious threat to the established order. Their success could change the power dynamics in each conference and provide a decisive upset of the 2026 March Madness tournament.
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Nebraska (26-5, 15-5 Big Ten)
The Cornhuskers currently hold the dubious distinction of being the only Power 5 school to have never won an NCAA Tournament game and have an all-time record of 0-8. But Nebraska is the Big Ten’s main story this season, with a 26-5 overall record and a No. 9 national ranking in the latest AP poll.
A first-round win for a likely high seed is rarely considered a historic accomplishment, but in this case it would be a huge milestone for the program and conference.
Miami-Ohio (31-0, 18-0 MAC)
The Redhawks haven’t made the tournament in 19 years, but entered the postseason as the last remaining undefeated team in Division 1. Miami-OH recently completed a perfect 31-0 regular season after a thrilling 110-108 overtime win over Ohio.
Their impeccable record puts the selection committee in a difficult position if the team loses in the MAC Tournament. Miami-OH has a history of tournament success, with multiple upsets as a double-digit seed.
St. Louis (27-4, 15-3 A-10)
Robbie Avila appears ready to lead the Billikens into the 68th-ranked field after narrowly missing out on a bid the past two seasons. Avila followed Indiana coach Josh Schertz as he led Saint Louis to a 27-4 overall record and a first place finish in the Atlantic 10.
The team features a high-powered offense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring and offensive efficiency and represents a legitimate threat heading into the second weekend.
Merrimack (23-10, 17-3 MAAC)
The Warriors finally qualified for the NCAA Tournament after completing their transition to Division 1 status. Merrimack won the 2023 Northeast Conference title but was left out of the Big Dance, replaced by Fairleigh Dickinson, who upset top seed Purdue.
This year, the Warriors have secured first place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 17-3 record and are in position to advance to their first bracket.
Central Arkansas (22-12, 15-3 ASun)
Central Arkansas is another program seeking its first NCAA Tournament bid after pulling off a surprising turnaround from a 4-14 conference finish last season. Second-year coach John Shulman has the Bears as ASun regular season co-champions and has a league record of 15 wins and 3 losses.
The team was one of the most efficient offensive units in the conference and entered the postseason with the momentum needed for a first-round upset.
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