Artificial intelligence (AI) is suddenly looking like its own executioner from turbocharging software, after Anthropic’s automation tools helped launch sales in February. The slide was driven by fears that AI assistants could replace entire categories of enterprise applications, pushing software values even as most fundamentals remain.
In this environment, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argued that the “AI fear trade” in software is in its final stages, with a lot of bad news already priced in and sellers largely exhausted, which is why he now frames the sector as a low story rather than the start of another big leg.
His opinion naturally puts the iShares North America Tech Software ETF ( IGV ) in focus, since it’s the go-to measure for big software. The fund has already delivered a significant chunk of its gains while concentrating a large portion of its assets in AI-exposed heavyweights. Are we looking at the early stages of a silent gathering rather than another AI casualty list in the making? Let’s find out.
Microsoft ( MSFT ) is a US-based technology company that develops operating systems, cloud infrastructure, productivity software, and AI-powered enterprise tools.
The stock is trading at $398.55 as of March 2, with a year-to-date (YTD) move of -17.59% and a 52-week change of +0.39%.
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That $2.9 trillion giant changes hands at a premium forward P/E of 23.99x and a price-to-sales ratio of 10.35x, modestly above the sector medians of 22.01x and 3.27x.
This premium is increasingly tied to AI. This year, the company expanded its OpenAI setup so it will receive 20% of all OpenAI revenue by 2032 while locking in large long-term Azure spending commitments.
Recent earnings support this narrative. This latest quarterly report, published in late January 2026, showed that Microsoft delivered EPS of $4.14 versus the consensus estimate of $3.88, a 6.70% positive surprise. This sets the stage for the next edition, where the March-quarter current estimate sits at $4.05, up from $3.46 a year ago, indicating an estimated year-over-year (YoY) EPS growth of around 17.05% as AI and cloud workloads continue to scale.
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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a Denver-based software company that develops data integration, analytics, and AI platforms for governments and corporations worldwide.
The stock is trading at $145.17 as of March 2, with a YTD gain of -18.33% and a 52-week gain of +70.95%.
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This $328.1 billion name trades at a premium 232.53x trailing P/E and 2.64x PEG ratio compared to 22.94x and 1.40x sector medians.
This premium is increasingly anchored by actual deployments, as Rackspace and Palantir partners run Foundry and AIP in managed production, enabling rapid hybrid and independent cloud AI rollouts while Rackspace scales from 30 to 250 Palantir-trained engineers.
This most recent fundamental update, released in early February 2026 along with Palantir’s Q4 2025 numbers, showed adjusted EPS of $0.24 versus the $0.17 consensus, a strong 41.18% upside surprise. It pointed to a business that is not only growing the top line but also increasing margins as recruitment deepens.
The next catalyst is already on the calendar, with a May 4, 2026, print of $0.22 versus a March quarter EPS estimate of $0.04 a year ago, forecasting 450% YoY earnings growth.
This view is echoed by 26 analysts, who sit at a consensus “moderate buy” with an average target of $200.43, implying an upside of about 38% from the last close.
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Oracle ( ORCL ), a $417.8 billion Redwood Shores-based software company, provides databases, enterprise applications, and cloud infrastructure. It returns cash through a leading $2 dividend, yielding about 1.38%.
ORCL is sitting at $149.25 as of March 2nd, with a YTD change of -23.43% and a 52-week change of -10.12%.
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The valuation now reflects a forward P/E of 24.18x and a forward P/E of 25.60x, versus the sector medians of 22.01x and 22.94x, scoring a modest premium.
That narrative is clearly illustrated in the latest set of quarterly numbers, released in December 2025 for the fiscal quarter ending November 2025, where adjusted EPS of $1.95 topped the $1.29 estimate of $51.16.
The next update is scheduled for March 9, 2026, with the current February-quarter EPS estimate of $1.34 versus the year-ago estimate of $1.18, indicating an estimated YoY earnings growth of 13.56%.
Oracle’s Street consensus reflects a consensus of 42 analysts with a “Strong Buy” rating and an average target of $284.02, which implies a roughly 90% upside from the last price.
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Salesforce ( CRM ), based in San Francisco, offers cloud-based CRM, data, and AI platforms for companies.
Its stock is trading at $192.95 as of March 2nd, down YTD by -27.16% and down 52-weeks by -35.22%.
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The $182.5 billion name is valued at a premium of about 1.33x on a PEG basis and a price-to-sales ratio of 4.40x, versus sector medians of 0.95x and 3.27x.
Its just-reported fiscal fourth quarter, released on February 25, 2026, delivered revenue of $11.2 billion, up 12% YoY and 10% in constant currency, with $399M contributed by Informatica.
It extended full fiscal 2026 revenue to $41.5 billion, up 10% YoY and 9% in constant currency, again including a $399 million Informatica tailwind.
It produced EPS of $2.85 versus the consensus estimate of $2.14 in the same quarter, up 33.18%. That’s strength in view, with the next earnings release scheduled for May 27, 2026, and the current April-quarter EPS estimate of $2.32 versus $1.94 a year ago, indicating a YoY growth rate of 19.59%.
This fits well with the “Strong Buy” street consensus of 51 analysts, with an average target of $287.79, which indicates a roughly 49% upside.
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Intuit ( INTU ), a Mountain View-based software company, offers tax preparation, small business accounting, and personal finance platforms for consumers and enterprises. This approximately $113.8 billion enterprise returns cash through a pre-annual dividend of $4.80 per share, which translates to a yield of approximately 1.17%.
INTU is trading at $419.06 as of March 2nd, down YTD by -36.74% and down 52-weeks by -31.73%.
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This premium profile now comes with a forward P/E of 23.74x and a price-to-sales ratio of 6.04x versus the sector medians of 22.01x and 3.12x.
INTU recently expanded its AI ambitions by partnering with Anthropic, integrating cloud-powered experiences into its financial software suite to improve automation, insights and customer outcomes.
Their most recent quarterly update, published in late February 2026 for the period ending January 2026, showed EPS of $2.83 vs the consensus of $2.23, a 26.91% positive surprise. Total revenue also increased to $4.7 billion, up 17% from last year, reflecting strong demand across the tax and small business ecosystems.
The next catalyst is due May 28, 2026, with an April-quarter EPS estimate of $11.42 versus $10.44 a year ago, indicating an estimated 9.39% YoY earnings increase.
This outlook is consistent with a “moderate buy” street consensus from 31 analysts and an average target of $716.53, indicating a roughly 71% upside from the current price.
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Tom Lee’s call doesn’t guarantee a straight-line high, but IGV’s leaders look fundamentally stronger than last time out. Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, Salesforce, and Intuit still bring strong revenue trends, promising AI investments, and strong balance sheets to the next phase of this cycle. Over time, risks remain real, but sector leaders are better positioned for a slow, earnings-led recovery than another collapse.
As of the date of publication, Ebob Jones had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com