Altcoins have been in a long-term structural decline since the peak of the 2021 bull cycle. While Bitcoin has been able to maintain parts of its macro upside, most altcoins have posted consistent highs and lows over several periods of time. For many projects, what started as a cyclical correction turned into a multi-year erosion of capital, liquidity and investor confidence.
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The latest data shared by analyst Darkfost underscores the severity of the situation: around 38% of altcoins are now trading near their lows. This figure is higher than the stress level seen in the aftermath of the FTX collapse and highlights that the current weakness is systemic rather than episodic.
The broader macro environment remains hostile to speculative positioning. Liquidity conditions are unstable and capital allocation appears to be more selective. Instead of turning to higher-beta crypto assets, flows are drawn to stocks and commodities, where volatility and reporting clarity are stronger. In such an environment, altcoins, which depend on excess liquidity and risk appetite, suffer disproportionately.
Altcoins in bear cycles as structural regression peaks
Darkfost emphasizes that the “percentage of altcoins near ATL” provides a direct measure of structural stress in the broader crypto market. At current levels, around 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows – marking the sharpest regression in this period. This is not a local fix for a few weak symptoms; it reflects a widespread decline in values across the altcoin spectrum.
For context, the metric previously peaked at around 35% in April 2025 and has fallen to around 37.8% since the FTX collapse. The fact that the current reading is higher than both of those periods underlines how persistent the pressure is. Despite the intermittent rebound, the flow of capital into altcoins has not materialized in a sustained manner.
The chart effectively reflects the prevailing sentiment: investors remain defensive, liquidity is selective, and speculative appetite is waning. At such stages, altcoins – typically higher beta instruments – are disproportionately affected.
However, historically, severe deterioration has often preceded turning points. Asymmetry develops when the positioning position becomes too compressed and expectations become deeply pessimistic. Although the timing remains uncertain, structurally depressed conditions are also environments in which long-term opportunities arise.
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Minimal Altcoin market pressures weekly support as the breadth weakens
The weekly chart of the total crypto market volume excluding the top 10 assets shows the structural volatility of the broader altcoin segment. Currently at around $169 billion, the index has retreated significantly from its peak in 2025 and is now pressing into a historically sensitive area.
Technically, the price has broken below the 50-week (blue) and 100-week (green) moving averages, both of which have started to bounce. This alignment indicates a loss of medium-term momentum. The 200-week moving average (red), located just above current levels, now acts as dynamic resistance rather than support – a significant change from the recovery phase of 2023 and early 2024.
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The structure after the 2025 peak resembles a low-high formation, suggesting a breakout rather than a rally. Volume widened during major sell-offs, particularly in large weekly candles, indicating forced outflows and liquidity pressures rather than organized consolidation.
From a cyclical perspective, the $160-170 billion zone represents a key turning point. A sustained break below this area paves the way to the $130-140 billion range and a revision of the support level in 2023. Conversely, a weekly retracement of the 200-week moving average is needed to indicate structural stabilization.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
