Despite the exchange’s exit, Bitcoin spot trading volume remains near multi-year lows.
The digital asset rose this week after US President Donald Trump hinted that war with Iran may be coming to an end, although the internet later took a more aggressive tone. Bitcoin briefly rose above $71,000 after rising more than 4%.
The data suggests a potential rally as futures traders continue to build short positions.
Bitcoin supply is getting tighter
According to the latest analysis by Binance Research, data on the chain indicates a potential rally in spots this week, even as short positions remain high in the futures market. Although the change has not yet been confirmed, current conditions indicate that a change may develop.
The company has seen around 29,000 BTC withdrawn from exchanges while Bitcoin was trading in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. This compares with an earlier decline from $97,000 to $62,000, when the increase in the trade balance showed strong selling pressure. However, over the past six months, the relationship between currency balances and prices has weakened, and low liquidity in trading venues may increase future price movements.
At the same time, stablecoin inflows to exchanges have increased by nearly 80% since March, from around $2 billion. This points to the re-introduction of liquidity into the market and suggests that capital may be actively used to support Bitcoin’s rally.
Despite these developments, spot bitcoin trading volume remains near multi-year lows amid weaker demand and order books. This pattern may reflect off-exchange accumulation through OTC channels, consistent with the recently reported sharp outflow from OTC desk balances. In derivatives markets, open interest has risen nearly 18% since the end of February after falling below $30 billion, while funding rates remain low to negative. This means that most of the activity is driven by short positions.
Market stress signals are emerging
The information about the chain shared by Amr Taha points to conditions that previously existed during periods of market stress. In a recent update, the analyst said that the Binance Bitcoin Derivatives Market Index fell to around 0.35. This level is similar to the readings recorded in July and August 2024 and is below the level of 0.43 in April 2025.
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Historically, levels in this range have occurred near market lows, followed by strong price recoveries. Taha also published a chart showing the decline in Bitcoin’s value by short-term investors. According to the data, the market capitalization of these holdings has decreased to about $390 billion compared to about $437 billion recorded on April 7, 2025.
The analyst said that major declines in the index often occurred before capitulation among short-term holders. A similar decline occurred on April 8, 2025, when heavy selling pushed the leading crypto asset to $78,000, before later breaking above $108,000.
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