In eastern Tehran, a resident named Sepehr keeps the front door of his apartment open. It’s a grim, calculated routine, allowing his family to race to an underground parking lot just as the explosions rattle their windows again.
As thick, toxic smoke from burning oil facilities blankets the city of 10 million, the reality of unbridled conflict has set in. “The war could last weeks, so my family and I will only leave if things get too bad,” Sepehr says. “For now, life goes on.”
For Iranians and the rest of the Middle East, there is an unsettling sense of deja vu. Today marks the twelfth day of the joint US-Israeli military war against Iran. Exactly at this point in the June 2025 escalation, a fragile US-brokered truce came into effect, halting 12 days of intense bombing.
Senior military leaders and hundreds of civilians were killed in Iran by Israeli strikes, and 28 were killed in Israel, and Iran’s largely symbolic salvo against the Al Udeid air base in Qatar, which houses American assets, drew the final curtain of that 12-day war.
Things look much more dangerous for the region and the world beyond this time.
The current conflict bears little resemblance to last year’s contained war. A drastic strategic shift – from the degradation of nuclear infrastructure to the execution of a “decapitation” attack against the Iranian leadership – has shattered the previous rules of engagement, dragging the region into an indefinite war of attrition with no diplomatic solutions.
The death of diplomacy
During the June 2025 war, Israeli and US forces largely concentrated their firepower on specific nuclear and military facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, although Tehran also came under heavy attack. While devastating, the defined scope of those goals left room for negotiations. The conflict ended on June 24 after intensive mediation by Oman, which had been facilitating indirect nuclear talks in Geneva.
This time, the United States and Israel adopted a fundamentally different goal. The opening salvo on February 28, 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several members of his family in Tehran. The strike was apparently based on the assumption that the removal of the head of state would precipitate the instant capitulation of the government.
That hasn’t happened. And now another Khamenei, second son Mojtaba, has been chosen as the new supreme leader, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and key leaders pledging allegiance.
US President Donald Trump has oscillated between demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, calling for a popular uprising and offering amnesty to military commanders who switch sides. However, despite Washington and Israel claiming they have attacked more than 5,000 targets and decimated Iran’s air force and navy, the government in Tehran has not collapsed.
Iran says US and Israeli forces have bombed nearly 10,000 civilian sites in the country and killed more than 1,300 civilians since the war began.
Surviving shock: the ‘mosaic defense’
The bet that Iran’s state apparatus would fracture without its supreme leader fundamentally misjudged Iranian military doctrine. Analysts note that Tehran spent two decades designing a framework to survive exactly this scenario.
Formulated by the IRGC, the concept of “decentralized mosaic defense” diffuses command and control across regional layers. Coupled with a “fourth successor” layoff plan, it ensures that even if senior leaders die and central communications are cut, local combat units retain authority and the ability to act.
Consequently, the Iranian establishment quickly named Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, and Iran’s vast missile forces continued to fire. Using a combination of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, as well as swarms of drones, Iran has turned time into a strategic weapon, aiming to deplete Israeli interceptor stocks and inflict continued economic paralysis.
A larger and more costly battlefield
The absence of an exit route has allowed the war to spread throughout the region. In 2025, Iran’s retaliation was largely limited to Israel and specific US assets. In 2026, Tehran expanded the map and launched attacks in nine countries.
Missiles and drones have attacked the US military presence and civilian infrastructure in all Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. The Iranian military has also restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, with sharp swings ongoing, and raising fears of a global energy crisis.
The financial burden of this unlimited war is staggering. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost the United States approximately $3.7 billion, much of it unbudgeted. Israel, already reeling from the economic strain of its protracted wars in Gaza and Lebanon, faces growing domestic pressure as daily sirens force millions into bunkers.
The human burden
While politicians and generals debate the shifting parameters of “victory,” civilians are absorbing the catastrophic costs. At least 1,255 people have died in Iran, along with 570 in Lebanon, 13 in Israel and eight American soldiers.
Among the dead Iranians were 200 children and 11 health workers. In the southern city of Minab, an attack destroyed the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ primary school, killing 165 people, mostly young students. While the United States says it is investigating that attack, independent analysts say the presence of remains of the Tomahawk missile appears to firmly point to Washington as the culprit.
Trump recently claimed that the war would end “very soon,” but the reality on the ground suggests a prolonged tragedy.
In the rubble of Minab’s school, a grieving man clutched the remains of a seven-year-old boy, shouting accusations of war crimes to the heavens. For this soul, and for millions of others caught in a conflict bereft of diplomatic outlets, military doctrines and strategic plans offer no solace, only prolonged loss and suffering.
