Bitcoin is showing early signs of relief after recovering from the $70,000 level. The move sparked selling pressure after weeks of volatile trading. The recovery comes as markets react to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. which kept liquidity volatile and investor sentiment cautious. While the push above $70K offers a short-term improvement in momentum, the underlying data suggests that most market participants are under pressure.
According to a recent CryptoQuant report, holders of Bitcoin ETFs, which broadly reflect institutional and retail demand through regulated investment vehicles, are currently positioned below their estimated average price. Estimated to be around $79,000, this cost basis will keep the average ETF investor at a loss despite the recent recovery.
Consider this metric as a reference point, not as an accurate measurement of individual investor behavior. ETF flows can obscure internal allocations between participants, and estimates cannot perfectly capture every underlying transaction within a fund. However, it provides a useful estimate of the cumulative rate of entry for ETF capital.
ETF outflows fall after record $8.9 billion as Bitcoin tries to stabilize
Darkfost’s analysis highlights the extent of recent pressure among Spot Bitcoin ETFs. While Bitcoin trades below the $70,000 threshold during much of the correction, these funds have recorded the largest decline since the all-time high in terms of investment value. In dollar terms, more than $8.9 billion left the ETF ecosystem as investors reduced their exposure during the recession.
The pressure was especially visible in the largest products on the market. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which once held more than 806,000 BTC at its peak, has seen a significant pullback throughout the correction. According to the data, more than 42,000 BTC left the fund, reflecting a clear wave of distribution as market sentiment worsened and price momentum slowed.
These flows represented an important source of selling pressure during the downturn, reinforcing the broader weakness in spot markets. When large ETFs face withdrawals, they often need to use Bitcoin to meet payments and increase supply in the market.
However, recent data suggest that the situation may be stabilizing. The accumulated amount of ETF holdings improved from a peak of $8.9 billion to about $7.8 billion. While still negative, this change indicates that the rate of withdrawal is slowing.
A renewed wave of demand from ETF investors will likely help Bitcoin establish a strong structural base for the move forward.
Bitcoin returns $70K as short-term momentum improves
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is showing a short-term recovery after breaking above the $70,000 level. Price managed to recover the 50-period moving average (blue) and is now testing the 100-period moving average (green), indicating that short-term strength is improving after weeks of consolidation and highs.
The recent move above $70K represents an important psychological shift. Throughout late February, the $69,000-$70,000 zone acted as a continuous rejection zone, with sellers repeatedly limiting upside efforts. Recent reviews suggest that buyers will absorb this supply, at least in the short term.
However, the broader structure remains cautious. Bitcoin is still trading below its 200-period moving average (red), which is currently located near the $70K range. This level represents a key resistance that needs to be recovered to confirm a stronger trend.
Volume increased moderately during the breakout attempt, indicating renewed involvement, though still at levels not normally associated with sustained high expansion.
From a technical perspective, holding above $69,000 will be important to maintain momentum. If this level turns into support, BTC may try to move towards the $73,000-$75,000 area. Conversely, a failure to hold above $69,000 could push the price back into a wider consolidation range around $66,000-$67,000.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
